Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 13.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET | New Haven #282 | Home | −12.1 | 86% |
| 2 | Tue Nov 10, 6:30 PM ET | NJIT #345 | Home | −18.2 | 95% |
| 3 | Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM ET | Bryant #332 | Home | −16.4 | 93% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 17, 2:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Eight | +16.3 | 7% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 24, 6:00 PM ET | Sacred Heart #274 | Home | −12.4 | 87% |
| 6 | Tue Dec 1, 8:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | +9.0 | 21% |
| 7 | Wed Dec 9, 6:30 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +16.0 | 7% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 12, 4:30 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home | +2.4 | 41% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 16, 6:30 PM ET | Saint Peter's #267 | Home | −11.7 | 86% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 20, 12:00 PM ET | Army #349 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 29, 6:00 PM ET | Delaware State #363 | Home | −21.8 | 98% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Away · conference | +11.8 | 14% |
| 13 | Tue Jan 5, 6:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | +4.2 | 35% |
| 14 | Fri Jan 8, 7:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | +5.2 | 32% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 12, 8:30 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | +6.3 | 28% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 16, 1:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | +5.5 | 31% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | +1.9 | 43% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −1.2 | 54% |
| 19 | Wed Jan 27, 11:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | +4.0 | 36% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 4:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | +5.6 | 31% |
| 21 | Wed Feb 3, 6:30 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | +7.9 | 24% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 11:00 AM ET | Syracuse #56 | Neutral at Barclays Center Empire Classic | +4.5 | 34% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 10, 6:30 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +14.3 | 10% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | +5.0 | 33% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +13.8 | 11% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 1:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −3.6 | 63% |
| 27 | Thu Feb 25, 6:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Away · conference | +10.6 | 17% |
| 28 | Sun Feb 28, 5:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −2.1 | 58% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, 6:30 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +12.5 | 13% |
| 30 | Sun Mar 7, 3:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | +0.5 | 48% |
Spread is from Rutgers's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RaSheed Jones | SG | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 14.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 36.2 | 25.4 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Tariq Francis | PG | 6-1 | SR | Returning | · | 17.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 27.8 | 24.4 | 15.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Darin Smith Jr. | SF | 6-7 | JR | Transfer | · | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 32.6 | 24.3 | 13.2 | 4.0 | 0.8 |
| Jamichael Davis | PG | 6-2 | SR | Returning | #280 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 26.2 | 19.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Darren Buchanan Jr. | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #197 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 24.1 | 18.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Christian Gurdak | C | 6-10 | SO | Transfer | #170 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 17.1 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| Lino Mark | PG | 6-2 | SO | Returning | #172 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 15.9 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Kaden Powers | SG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | #228 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Dorin Buca | C | 7-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Imahri Wooten | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #185 | · | · | · | · | 9.7 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Gevonte Ware | C | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #203 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Will Sydnor | PF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | · | 13.9 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 29.5 | · | · | · | · |
| Diego Garavaglia | SG | 6-7 | FR | International | #314 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Martin Tonejc | SF | 6-7 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Max Fradkin | PG | 5-11 | JR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Mervedi Miteo | PF | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.