Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 21.1
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET | Gonzaga #10 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas | +3.0 | 39% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 6:30 PM ET | Valparaiso #139 | Home | −15.6 | 92% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, 8:30 PM ET | Illinois State #99 | Home | −12.0 | 86% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET | Ohio #148 | Home | −16.5 | 93% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 6:30 PM ET | Lipscomb #188 | Home | −18.6 | 95% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 7:00 PM ET | Oakland #147 | Home | −16.9 | 94% |
| 7 | Tue Nov 24, 6:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Neutral at Suncoast Credit Union Arena Fort Myers Tip-Off - Beach Division | −8.1 | 77% |
| 8 | Thu Nov 26, 12:00 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Neutral at Suncoast Credit Union Arena Fort Myers Tip-Off - Beach Division | −2.1 | 58% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | −3.2 | 62% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 8:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away | +6.1 | 29% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 8, 9:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | −1.3 | 55% |
| 12 | Fri Dec 11, 8:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 | Home | +0.8 | 47% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, 5:30 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Neutral at Gainbridge Fieldhouse Indy Classic | −9.8 | 81% |
| 14 | Mon Dec 21, 6:00 PM ET | California Baptist #142 | Home | −15.8 | 93% |
| 15 | Wed Dec 30, 6:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | −5.2 | 68% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −11.8 | 86% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 5, 9:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +6.2 | 29% |
| 18 | Fri Jan 8, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.2 | 20% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 12, 8:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 20 | Sun Jan 17, 2:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | −6.8 | 73% |
| 21 | Wed Jan 20, 6:30 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −11.8 | 86% |
| 23 | Tue Jan 26, 6:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | −0.3 | 51% |
| 24 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.1 | 35% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 3, 6:30 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −7.9 | 76% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | −8.2 | 77% |
| 27 | Fri Feb 12, 8:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 | Home · conference | +2.4 | 41% |
| 28 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | −1.0 | 54% |
| 29 | Sun Feb 21, 1:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | −5.5 | 69% |
| 30 | Wed Feb 24, 10:30 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | −5.9 | 70% |
| 31 | Sat Feb 27, 8:30 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 32 | Fri Mar 5, 8:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
Spread is from Purdue's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Cox | SG | 6-3 | JR | Returning | #259 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 24.4 | 21.6 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Daniel Jacobsen | C | 7-4 | JR | Returning | #152 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 12.9 | 15.8 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| Luke Ertel | PG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | #43 | · | · | · | · | 15.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Gicarri Harris | SG | 6-3 | JR | Returning | #78 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Jack Benter | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #250 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Omer Mayer | PG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | · | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Jacob Webber | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #68 | · | · | · | · | 13.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Sinan Huan | C | 7-1 | FR | Recruit | #73 | · | · | · | · | 13.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| Rivers Knight | PF | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | #198 | · | · | · | · | 10.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Jack Lusk | SG | 6-4 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Jace Rayl | PG | 5-11 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Caden Pierce | PF | 6-7 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 32.5 | · | · | · | · |
| Raleigh Burgess | PF | 6-11 | RS SO | Returning | #123 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 6.4 | · | · | · | · |
| Antione West Jr. | SG | 6-3 | RS FR | Returning | #168 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Enzo Shahrvin | PF | 6-9 | SR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Sam King | PF | 6-9 | RS SR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.