Big East Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 18.0
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM ET | Maine #347 | Home | −25.0 | 99% |
| 2 | Sat Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Mohegan Sun Arena Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off | +6.4 | 28% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Bryant #332 | Home | −23.2 | 98% |
| 4 | Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Home | −8.1 | 77% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET | Sacred Heart #274 | Home | −19.2 | 96% |
| 6 | Mon Nov 23, 9:00 PM ET | VCU #44 | Neutral at Lahaina Civic Center Southwest Maui Invitational | +0.7 | 48% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 1, 7:00 PM ET | Stonehill #334 | Home | −23.6 | 98% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 5, time TBA | Rhode Island #123 | Away | −6.9 | 74% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 8, 7:00 PM ET | Fairfield #243 | Home | −18.0 | 95% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 2:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Home · conference | −6.8 | 73% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 19, time TBA | Syracuse #56 | Neutral at TD Garden Hall of Fame Series - Orlando | −1.3 | 55% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 22, 6:30 PM ET | Villanova #28 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +5.6 | 30% |
| 13 | Wed Dec 30, 6:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Home · conference | +3.8 | 36% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Away · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 5, 8:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Away · conference | −0.4 | 51% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 9, 1:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Home · conference | −5.4 | 69% |
| 17 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +8.2 | 23% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +4.5 | 34% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 6:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Away · conference | −0.2 | 51% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Away · conference | −2.4 | 59% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home · conference | −3.4 | 62% |
| 22 | Wed Feb 3, 9:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away · conference | +0.1 | 50% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 10, 7:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Home · conference | −4.7 | 67% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Home · conference | −6.3 | 72% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 6:30 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 8:30 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Away · conference | +0.8 | 47% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 23, 8:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Home · conference | −4.4 | 65% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 8:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +8.6 | 22% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, 7:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Away · conference | −1.0 | 53% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 8:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Home · conference | −4.2 | 65% |
Spread is from Providence's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 18.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 36.3 | 23.8 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Miles Byrd | SG | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | #180 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 28.0 | 22.5 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Malik Mack | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.6 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 32.3 | 22.2 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Ryan Mela | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #273 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 18.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| Devin Vanterpool | SG | 6-4 | JR | Transfer | · | 15.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 31.2 | 18.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| Samson Aletan | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #203 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 25.9 | 17.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 |
| Arrinten Page | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #57 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 22.9 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| Jacob Bannarbie | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | · | 5.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 13.7 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| Gavin Hightower | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Dink Pate | SF | 6-8 | FR | Pro | #29 | · | · | · | · | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Derek Simpson | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #247 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 34.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Clyde Walters | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #162 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Javon Bardwell | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #36 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| John Jackson | PG | 6-0 | RS FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Leonardo Marangon | SF | 6-7 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.