Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 14.0
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Canisius #339 | Home | −15.2 | 92% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, 6:00 PM ET | Chattanooga #265 | Home | −10.3 | 82% |
| 3 | Sun Nov 8, 8:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Neutral at The Palestra | +2.5 | 41% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Lafayette #327 | Away | −10.6 | 83% |
| 5 | Thu Nov 12, time TBA | Mercyhurst #294 | Home | −11.4 | 85% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 15, 4:30 PM ET | New Haven #282 | Home | −10.6 | 83% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 18, 6:30 PM ET | IU Indianapolis #284 | Home | −12.3 | 87% |
| 8 | Wed Nov 25, 5:00 PM ET | Memphis #89 | Neutral at Imperial Arena Battle 4 Atlantis - Championship Bracket | +2.0 | 43% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | UAlbany #292 | Home | −11.5 | 85% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 8:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | +11.3 | 15% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +17.9 | 5% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, time TBA | UT Martin #221 | Home | −8.4 | 78% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, 2:30 PM ET | Lafayette #327 | Home | −14.7 | 91% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 22, 7:00 PM ET | Saint Joseph's #121 | Neutral at Giant Center | −1.3 | 55% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 8:30 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | +4.1 | 36% |
| 17 | Sun Jan 10, 12:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | +3.0 | 39% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | +10.6 | 17% |
| 19 | Sun Jan 17, 12:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.1 | 13% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 6:30 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | +9.4 | 20% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 4:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Away · conference | +11.5 | 15% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +15.8 | 8% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
| 24 | Tue Feb 2, 6:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | +6.5 | 28% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | +8.1 | 23% |
| 26 | Fri Feb 12, 9:30 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +15.3 | 8% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 17, 7:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | +3.1 | 39% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 1:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | +3.6 | 37% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 6:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +17.6 | 5% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 10:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | +9.6 | 19% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 9:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +11.0 | 16% |
| 32 | Sun Mar 7, 3:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
Spread is from Penn State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dasonte Bowen | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | #155 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 34.3 | 27.7 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| Jay Rodgers | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.0 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 29.3 | 26.0 | 9.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 |
| Brant Byers | SF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | · | 14.2 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 30.8 | 25.0 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Roberts Blums | SG | 6-4 | JR | Transfer | · | 12.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| Ivan Juric | C | 7-0 | SO | Returning | · | 10.2 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 26.4 | 21.1 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 0.8 |
| Tim Oboh | C | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | · | 8.5 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0.4 |
| Chris Lotito | PF | 6-7 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Josh Reed | SF | 6-8 | SR | Returning | #158 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 28.2 | · | · | · | · |
| Aleksandar Zecevic | PF | 6-9 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Andy Gemao | PG | 6-1 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Francois Wibaut | SF | 6-7 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Grant Spacciapolli | SG | 6-3 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Reggie Grodin | SG | 6-5 | RS FR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Roko Prkacin | PF | 6-8 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Thomas Allard | SG | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.