Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 13.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 10:00 PM ET | Montana #220 | Home | −12.2 | 87% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Eastern Washington #169 | Home | −9.9 | 82% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, time TBA | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −23.0 | 98% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET | Pepperdine #212 | Home | −11.7 | 86% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 24, 10:30 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Sixteen | +9.5 | 19% |
| 6 | Tue Dec 1, 10:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | +6.1 | 29% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 4:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | +3.1 | 39% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 12, 4:00 PM ET | Indiana State #201 | Home | −11.4 | 85% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 16, 10:30 PM ET | Southern #300 | Home | −15.9 | 93% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 20, 4:30 PM ET | Portland State #173 | Home | −10.1 | 82% |
| 11 | Wed Dec 30, 4:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Away · conference | +8.5 | 22% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 13 | Wed Jan 6, 10:30 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | +3.0 | 39% |
| 14 | Sun Jan 10, 6:30 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | +7.7 | 24% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 16, 4:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.2 | 13% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +17.9 | 5% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 23, 7:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | −0.4 | 52% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 27, 11:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −4.0 | 64% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Gonzaga #10 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Climate Pledge Arena | +11.3 | 15% |
| 20 | Wed Feb 3, 8:30 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | +7.0 | 26% |
| 21 | Sun Feb 7, 4:30 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
| 22 | Wed Feb 10, 8:30 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Away · conference | +8.1 | 23% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | +0.7 | 47% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −4.0 | 64% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +10.4 | 17% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 24, 10:30 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | +5.9 | 30% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 27, 6:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +7.3 | 25% |
| 28 | Wed Mar 3, 10:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | +2.2 | 42% |
| 29 | Sat Mar 6, 10:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | +3.5 | 37% |
Spread is from Oregon's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Payne | PG | 6-1 | JR | Transfer | #223 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 34.7 | 18.2 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Tyrone Riley IV | SG | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #124 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 31.8 | 15.9 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| Andrew Meadow | PF | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | · | 12.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 29.9 | 15.7 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Malique Ewin | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #94 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 21.0 | 13.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Sean Stewart | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | #17 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 23.0 | 12.7 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Pharaoh Compton | PF | 6-7 | JR | Transfer | #107 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #70 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 19.0 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Wei Lin | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | · | 6.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 17.6 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Tajh Ariza | SF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #37 | · | · | · | · | 9.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Jerry Easter II | PG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | #42 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 17.4 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Jasper Johnson | SG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | #25 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Dwayne Aristode | SF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | #22 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Kendre Harrison | PF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #138 | · | · | · | · | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Luke Johnson | SF | 6-8 | JR | Walk-on | · | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Rian Gonzales | SG | 6-3 | RS FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Steven Spurlock | SF | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #179 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.