Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 16.8
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Incarnate Word #223 | Home | −15.1 | 92% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Queens University #160 | Home | −12.6 | 87% |
| 3 | Thu Nov 12, time TBA | Texas A&M #37 | Away | +5.7 | 30% |
| 4 | Mon Nov 16, time TBA | Central Arkansas #164 | Home | −12.5 | 87% |
| 5 | Fri Nov 20, 12:30 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | −3.4 | 62% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, 3:30 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | +0.6 | 48% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 25, time TBA | Jackson State #357 | Home | −26.8 | 99% |
| 8 | Sun Nov 29, time TBA | Tennessee State #199 | Home | −14.9 | 91% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 2, time TBA | Grand Canyon #57 | Home | −1.8 | 56% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 3:15 PM ET | Saint Mary's #55 | Home | −1.7 | 56% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:30 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Neutral at Paycom Center | +4.1 | 35% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, time TBA | Oral Roberts #318 | Home | −20.7 | 97% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Neutral at BOK Center | −0.6 | 52% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Houston Christian #309 | Home | −19.3 | 96% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −6.4 | 72% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 6:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | +2.9 | 40% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +13.2 | 12% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, time TBA | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −6.9 | 73% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | +4.9 | 33% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 4:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | +0.7 | 47% |
| 21 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 | Home · conference | +8.6 | 22% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 12:30 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.6 | 17% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 9:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 2:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Home · conference | +4.1 | 36% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 10, 9:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +8.9 | 21% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 8:30 PM ET | TCU #42 | Away · conference | +5.1 | 32% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +9.3 | 20% |
| 28 | Sun Feb 21, 4:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +15.3 | 8% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 8:30 PM ET | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −0.7 | 52% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | Utah #98 | Away · conference | −2.6 | 59% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 9:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | +8.0 | 23% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | −3.1 | 61% |
Spread is from Oklahoma State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Burks | SF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | #174 | 13.3 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 28.2 | 18.9 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Kashie Natt | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 26.5 | 18.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| Jacob Walker | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 11.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 25.7 | 16.9 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Luka Bogavac | SG | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 24.3 | 16.5 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Julius Halaifonua | C | 7-0 | JR | Transfer | · | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 15.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| Andrija Grbovic | PF | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 19.8 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Anthony Felesi | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #38 | · | · | · | · | 12.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Latrell Allmond | PF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #35 | · | · | · | · | 12.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Jalen Montonati | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #98 | · | · | · | · | 10.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Benjamin Ahmed | PF | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #76 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| Parker Robinson | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #161 | · | · | · | · | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Ryan Crotty | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #107 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Mekhi Ragland | C | 6-11 | SO | Returning | #214 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Kanye Clary | PG | 6-0 | SR | Returning | #202 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 28.2 | · | · | · | · |
| Parsa Fallah | C | 6-10 | SR | Returning | · | 14.7 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 26.3 | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.