Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 15.7
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun Nov 1, 9:30 AM ET | Villanova #28 | Neutral at Palazzo dello Sport Eternal City Tip-Off | +6.8 | 27% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | Mercyhurst #294 | Home | −14.8 | 91% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, time TBA | Eastern Illinois #306 | Home | −16.0 | 93% |
| 4 | Wed Nov 11, time TBA | South Carolina State #358 | Home | −22.9 | 98% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 4:30 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Eight | +13.3 | 11% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, time TBA | Central Michigan #290 | Home | −15.2 | 92% |
| 7 | Sat Nov 28, time TBA | Stonehill #334 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 2, 7:15 PM ET | Vanderbilt #18 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +6.4 | 28% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 2:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home | +2.6 | 41% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, time TBA | Long Island University #316 | Home | −17.2 | 94% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home | +4.4 | 34% |
| 12 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Le Moyne #311 | Home | −17.1 | 94% |
| 13 | Wed Dec 30, 2:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −2.2 | 58% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 6, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Home · conference | +0.4 | 48% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 12:30 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | +2.1 | 42% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −4.1 | 65% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −3.0 | 61% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 2:15 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +17.5 | 6% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | +1.1 | 46% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, 12:30 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
| 22 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | +3.7 | 37% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 6, 5:30 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 4:30 PM ET | Miami #24 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Away · conference | +8.9 | 21% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 8:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | +0.3 | 49% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 2:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Home · conference | −5.7 | 70% |
Spread is from Notre Dame's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Duncomb | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #77 | 18.3 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 1.4 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #229 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 32.7 | 23.4 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Ethan Roberts | SF | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 30.5 | 20.1 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Devin Brown | SG | 6-6 | SO | Transfer | · | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 23.4 | 18.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Braeden Smith | PG | 6-0 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.1 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 17.1 | 16.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Logan Imes | PG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #212 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 21.1 | 16.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Brady Koehler | PF | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #77 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| Bryce Dortch | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | #190 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Jonathan Sanderson | PG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | #82 | · | · | · | · | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Gan-Erdene Solongo | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #165 | · | · | · | · | 10.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Brady Stevens | SG | 6-4 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Jake Burow | SG | 6-3 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Luke Devine | SF | 6-7 | SO | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Nick Shrewsberry | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #389 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tommy Ahneman | C | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #150 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Yoro Diallo | PF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.