Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 16.9
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Binghamton #351 | Home | −21.5 | 97% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Stony Brook #249 | Home | −14.5 | 91% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM ET | Boston University #283 | Home | −15.3 | 92% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | DePaul #78 | Home | −3.7 | 63% |
| 5 | Mon Nov 16, time TBA | Columbia #181 | Home | −11.7 | 86% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 3:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | +1.0 | 46% |
| 7 | Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Dayton #73 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | −1.3 | 55% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 8:00 PM ET | Northeastern #303 | Home | −17.7 | 95% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, 9:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 4:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Neutral at Delta Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | +5.8 | 30% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 4:30 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +16.2 | 7% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, time TBA | Mercyhurst #294 | Home | −16.0 | 93% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Neutral at BOK Center | +0.6 | 48% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, 8:00 PM ET | Chicago State #342 | Home | −20.7 | 97% |
| 15 | Sun Jan 3, 7:30 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 6:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.0 | 26% |
| 17 | Sun Jan 10, 12:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | −3.0 | 61% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +8.8 | 21% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 1:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −5.5 | 69% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 10:30 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | +2.0 | 43% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 7:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | +0.4 | 48% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 2:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +8.2 | 23% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 7:30 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | +5.4 | 31% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | +2.8 | 40% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.7 | 12% |
| 28 | Sun Feb 21, 2:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 8:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | +0.7 | 47% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 3:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | +6.1 | 29% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 8:30 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Home · conference | +6.7 | 27% |
| 32 | Sun Mar 7, 1:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −1.6 | 56% |
Spread is from Northwestern's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Karasinski | SF | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | · | 21.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 29.9 | 23.3 | 14.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| Colin Smith | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | #121 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 29.3 | 21.5 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| Luke McEldon | C | 6-10 | JR | Transfer | · | 11.7 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 25.6 | 18.4 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| Okku Federiko | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | #213 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 23.2 | 17.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| Angelo Ciaravino | SG | 6-6 | JR | Returning | #215 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 22.0 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| Jake West | PG | 6-3 | SO | Returning | #126 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 22.0 | 15.3 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Ryan Soulis | C | 6-10 | JR | Transfer | · | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Jayden Hodge | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #86 | · | · | · | · | 11.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| LA Pratt | SG | 6-5 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 17.0 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 33.0 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Aleksej Kostic | SG | 6-4 | SO | Transfer | · | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Symon Ghai | C | 7-3 | FR | Recruit | #142 | · | · | · | · | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Dylan Williams | PG | 5-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Gill | PG | 6-3 | SO | Returning | #277 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Elijah Eschmeyer | SF | 6-7 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.