Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 19 in conference · expected wins 19.9
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM ET | Western Carolina #189 | Home | −17.0 | 94% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET | Wofford #270 | Home | −20.4 | 97% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Wyoming #107 | Home | −11.3 | 85% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Home | −3.2 | 61% |
| 5 | Fri Nov 20, 9:00 PM ET | Marshall #241 | Home | −19.9 | 96% |
| 6 | Mon Nov 23, 8:00 PM ET | Monmouth #205 | Home | −17.6 | 95% |
| 7 | Fri Nov 27, 7:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Neutral at Spectrum Center Dick Vitale Invitational pres. by Belk | −2.9 | 60% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 7:30 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +1.5 | 45% |
| 9 | Sun Dec 6, 3:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Home | −8.8 | 79% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 12:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Away | −2.4 | 59% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 15, 7:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Neutral at First Horizon Coliseum · conference Tobacco Road Classic | +1.1 | 46% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 19, 2:30 PM ET | Kentucky #26 | Neutral at Madison Square Garden CBS Sports Classic | +2.0 | 43% |
| 13 | Mon Dec 21, 8:00 PM ET | The Citadel #348 | Home | −25.9 | 99% |
| 14 | Wed Dec 30, 4:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −10.2 | 82% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 4:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −7.6 | 76% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 9:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +8.1 | 23% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Home · conference | −1.0 | 54% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 2:15 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Home · conference | +0.2 | 49% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −5.1 | 68% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Bridgestone Arena Nashville Hoops Showdown | +6.8 | 27% |
| 24 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Away · conference | −3.7 | 63% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 2:15 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Home · conference | −12.5 | 87% |
| 26 | Mon Feb 8, 6:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.9 | 36% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 13, 5:30 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.3 | 13% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 7:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | −3.8 | 63% |
| 29 | Mon Feb 22, 7:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | +0.0 | 50% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | −1.3 | 55% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 9:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Away · conference | −4.8 | 67% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +8.2 | 23% |
Spread is from North Carolina's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Brown | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 31.6 | 23.0 | 15.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Angelo Brizzi | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 29.8 | 21.9 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Cameron Fens | C | 7-0 | SR | Transfer | · | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 25.3 | 20.1 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.7 |
| Jarin Stevenson | PF | 6-10 | SR | Returning | #21 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 25.7 | 17.4 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Matt Able | SG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | #26 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 21.8 | 16.8 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Maximo Adams | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #29 | · | · | · | · | 13.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Kevin Thomas | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #101 | · | · | · | · | 11.2 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Sayon Keita | C | 7-1 | FR | International | #17 | · | · | · | · | 11.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| Jaydon Young | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #243 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Evan Smith | PG | 6-1 | SR | Walk-on | · | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Isaiah Denis | PG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | #66 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| John Holbrook | PF | 6-8 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Neo Avdalas | SF | 6-9 | SO | Transfer | · | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 31.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Alexandros Samodurov | C | 6-11 | JR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Cade Bennerman | C | 7-0 | SO | Transfer | #219 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Malloy Smith | PG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #374 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.