Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 24.1
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET | Le Moyne #311 | Home | −26.9 | 99% |
| 2 | Sat Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Neutral at Mohegan Sun Arena Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off | −6.4 | 72% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, 9:00 PM ET | Lindenwood #245 | Home | −24.6 | 99% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Boise State #91 | Neutral at Sanford Pentagon | −11.2 | 85% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, 8:30 PM ET | South Dakota #321 | Home | −27.8 | 99% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Neutral at Credit Union 1 Arena Bad Boy Mowers Series | −10.5 | 83% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 25, 5:00 PM ET | Southern #300 | Home | −26.1 | 99% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 2, 8:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | −5.0 | 68% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 1:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away | −6.0 | 71% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 8:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | −11.3 | 85% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 7:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Neutral at T-Mobile Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −6.3 | 72% |
| 12 | Thu Dec 17, 7:00 PM ET | Mount St. Mary's #295 | Home | −25.0 | 99% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 4:00 PM ET | Fairleigh Dickinson #325 | Home | −26.5 | 99% |
| 14 | Wed Dec 30, 2:00 PM ET | New Haven #282 | Home | −23.1 | 98% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 3:45 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Home · conference | −1.4 | 55% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.5 | 38% |
| 17 | Sun Jan 10, 6:30 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | −7.7 | 76% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 11:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | −6.2 | 71% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.8 | 33% |
| 21 | Fri Jan 22, 9:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | −7.3 | 75% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 6:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +0.3 | 49% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 5:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −1.1 | 54% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 6:30 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −9.8 | 81% |
| 26 | Fri Feb 12, 9:30 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −15.3 | 92% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −13.8 | 89% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +2.6 | 41% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 3:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −6.1 | 71% |
| 31 | Wed Mar 3, 8:30 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | −3.0 | 61% |
| 32 | Sun Mar 7, 7:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −12.3 | 87% |
Spread is from Nebraska's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce Sandfort | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #91 | 18.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 33.6 | 24.0 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| Trevan Leonhardt | PG | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.9 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 34.4 | 22.3 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Boden Kapke | C | 7-0 | SR | Transfer | #304 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 26.8 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 |
| Damon Wilkinson | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.9 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 23.9 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.9 |
| Braden Frager | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #246 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 23.6 | 18.0 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| Sam Orme | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 25.7 | 17.9 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Taj DeGourville | PG | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #178 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 19.4 | 14.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Cale Jacobsen | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | · | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 19.7 | 14.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Colin Rice | SF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #84 | · | · | · | · | 10.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Jacob Lanier | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #105 | · | · | · | · | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Leo Curtis | C | 7-2 | SO | Returning | #196 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Kadyn Betts | SF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | #272 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Will Cooper | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | · | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 15.1 | · | · | · | · |
| Connor Essegian | SG | 6-4 | RS SR | Returning | #211 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Henry Burt | SF | 6-8 | SR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.