Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
31 games · 19 in conference · expected wins 22.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Campbell #163 | Home | −17.2 | 94% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | East Tennessee State #156 | Home | −16.3 | 93% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Presbyterian #251 | Home | −20.2 | 97% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET | Troy #129 | Home | −14.7 | 91% |
| 5 | Thu Nov 19, 6:00 PM ET | Murray State #110 | Neutral at Baha Mar Convention Center Baha Mar Championship | −11.4 | 85% |
| 6 | Wed Nov 25, time TBA | Norfolk State #337 | Home | −26.9 | 99% |
| 7 | Sat Nov 28, time TBA | Elon #247 | Home | −20.6 | 97% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 7:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −11.8 | 86% |
| 9 | Sun Dec 6, 7:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Bridgestone Arena Bad Boy Mowers Series | +4.1 | 35% |
| 10 | Fri Dec 11, 7:00 PM ET | UNC Greensboro #297 | Home | −22.8 | 98% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 15, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Neutral at First Horizon Coliseum · conference Tobacco Road Classic | −1.1 | 54% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 19, 7:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Away | −2.6 | 59% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 22, time TBA | Alabama A&M #308 | Home | −23.3 | 98% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, 8:00 PM ET | Miami #24 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.1 | 39% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 1:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 7:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −9.7 | 81% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | +1.0 | 46% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 9:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −6.2 | 71% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −9.3 | 80% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −9.0 | 79% |
| 21 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | California #94 | Away · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 8:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Away · conference | −5.0 | 68% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 6:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Home · conference | −10.3 | 83% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 10, 7:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | −4.8 | 67% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 13, 1:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Home · conference | −12.7 | 88% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 17, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | −2.3 | 58% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 20, 12:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −11.2 | 85% |
| 28 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Home · conference | −8.9 | 79% |
| 29 | Sat Feb 27, 12:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.3 | 15% |
| 30 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.8 | 40% |
| 31 | Sat Mar 6, 12:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
Spread is from NC State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Edmead | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 16.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 33.9 | 22.8 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Kyle Evans | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 12.1 | 8.7 | 0.9 | 28.6 | 22.7 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 0.8 |
| Christian Hammond | PG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | #283 | 15.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 30.3 | 20.9 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. | SG | 6-6 | JR | Returning | #53 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 28.6 | 20.4 | 10.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Eemeli Yalaho | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 10.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 28.4 | 19.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 |
| Darius Adams | SG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | #24 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 25.6 | 18.5 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| RJ Keene II | SG | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | #126 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 22.2 | 15.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Comeh Emuobor | SF | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #250 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 18.9 | 14.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| Kingston Whitty | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #164 | · | · | · | · | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Jacari Brim | PG | 6-2 | SO | Transfer | · | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | #70 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 28.1 | · | · | · | · |
| Robert Jurkovic | PF | 6-10 | SR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Shah Hall | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Zymicah Wilkins | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #70 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.