Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 14.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | North Dakota #314 | Home | −14.9 | 91% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET | St. Thomas-Minnesota #175 | Home | −8.6 | 78% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, time TBA | Cincinnati #25 | Away | +10.7 | 17% |
| 4 | Thu Nov 12, time TBA | Southern #300 | Home | −14.1 | 90% |
| 5 | Mon Nov 16, 8:00 PM ET | Western Illinois #355 | Home | −19.0 | 96% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 12:30 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | +3.4 | 38% |
| 7 | Sun Nov 22, 6:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | −1.0 | 54% |
| 8 | Sat Nov 28, 8:00 PM ET | California #94 | Neutral at Sanford Pentagon | −0.6 | 52% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 2, 6:30 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.9 | 12% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 7:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +11.1 | 16% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 1:30 PM ET | SMU #50 | Neutral at Comerica Center | +4.2 | 35% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, 8:30 PM ET | Texas Southern #356 | Home | −20.2 | 97% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 2:00 PM ET | Alcorn State #352 | Home | −18.8 | 96% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | UTSA #329 | Home | −16.9 | 94% |
| 15 | Sun Jan 3, 7:30 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | +4.5 | 34% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 8:30 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −4.1 | 64% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | +7.9 | 24% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 6:30 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +18.5 | 5% |
| 19 | Sun Jan 17, 2:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | +6.8 | 27% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 8:30 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | +4.1 | 36% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | +1.2 | 46% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 9:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | +0.8 | 47% |
| 23 | Sun Jan 31, 1:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | +4.0 | 36% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 4:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +8.2 | 23% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 10:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | +7.0 | 26% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +14.5 | 9% |
| 28 | Sun Feb 21, 2:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | +0.7 | 47% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 6:30 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | +1.1 | 46% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Away · conference | +8.9 | 21% |
| 31 | Thu Mar 4, 8:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | +5.6 | 31% |
| 32 | Sun Mar 7, 7:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.3 | 13% |
Spread is from Minnesota's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Asuma | PG | 6-3 | JR | Returning | #156 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 34.3 | 25.3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Bobby Durkin | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #248 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 32.8 | 24.2 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | PF | 6-8 | SR | Returning | #252 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 31.5 | 20.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| Grayson Grove | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #276 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 20.6 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Malachi Palmer | SG | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #160 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 18.3 | 15.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Kyan Evans | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 4.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 17.7 | 14.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Kai Shinholster | SG | 6-5 | SO | Returning | #276 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Cedric Tomes | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #261 | · | · | · | · | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Chadrack Mpoyi | C | 6-11 | FR | Recruit | #146 | · | · | · | · | 10.0 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Nolen Anderson | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #230 | · | · | · | · | 10.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Nolan Groves | SG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | · | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Malick Kordel | C | 7-2 | SO | Transfer | · | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Winters Grady | SF | 6-6 | RS FR | Transfer | #59 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Cade Tyson | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | · | 19.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 36.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Blake Nixon Jr. | SG | 6-3 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Max Lorenson | PG | 6-2 | RS FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.