Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 25.4
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 6:00 PM ET | Oakland #147 | Home | −26.0 | 99% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at TD Garden Hall of Fame Series - Boston | −5.2 | 68% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Home | −17.2 | 94% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, time TBA | William & Mary #166 | Home | −27.8 | 99% |
| 5 | Sat Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Away | −6.2 | 71% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, 5:30 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | −14.2 | 90% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 1, 7:00 PM ET | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −40.6 | >99% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | −3.9 | 64% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 9, 6:30 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −16.0 | 93% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 4:30 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | −16.2 | 93% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, 4:00 PM ET | Detroit Mercy #233 | Home | −29.9 | >99% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 30, 12:00 PM ET | Toledo #157 | Home | −25.9 | 99% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −16.5 | 93% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −3.5 | 62% |
| 15 | Fri Jan 8, 8:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | −9.2 | 80% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 6:30 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −18.5 | 95% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 1:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | −8.5 | 78% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −17.9 | 95% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 3:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | −9.0 | 79% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 26, 10:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | −9.1 | 80% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | −10.9 | 84% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | −8.9 | 79% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | −4.6 | 66% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 1:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Home · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 8:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | −14.5 | 91% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 1:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | −10.5 | 83% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 23, 6:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | −17.6 | 95% |
| 28 | Fri Feb 26, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −2.9 | 60% |
| 29 | Thu Mar 4, 6:30 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −20.2 | 97% |
| 30 | Sun Mar 7, 2:15 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Away · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
Spread is from Michigan's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
17 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Noland | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 17.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 33.1 | 23.9 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Moustapha Thiam | C | 7-2 | JR | Transfer | #59 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 27.2 | 19.8 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| Elliot Cadeau | PG | 6-1 | SR | Returning | #13 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 27.3 | 19.1 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| Brandon McCoy Jr. | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #15 | · | · | · | · | 17.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Trey McKenney | SG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | #21 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 22.1 | 17.1 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| JP Estrella | PF | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #60 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 18.3 | 16.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 0.8 |
| Lincoln Cosby | SF | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | #49 | · | · | · | · | 13.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Quinn Costello | PF | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | #41 | · | · | · | · | 13.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Joseph Hartman | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #94 | · | · | · | · | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Jalen Reed | PF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | #63 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 18.0 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Malachi Brown | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #194 | · | · | · | · | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Oscar Goodman | PF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #158 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Howard Eisley Jr. | PG | 6-0 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | #61 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 21.1 | · | · | · | · |
| Harrison Hochberg | SF | 6-7 | SR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Marcus Moller | C | 7-3 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Ricky Liburd | SG | 6-5 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.