Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 22.8
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Quinnipiac #193 | Home | −21.7 | 98% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM ET | Toledo #157 | Home | −19.7 | 96% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at United Center State Farm Champions Classic | +5.5 | 31% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET | Northern Iowa #86 | Home | −12.8 | 88% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 9:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Away | +2.5 | 41% |
| 6 | Sat Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET | Detroit Mercy #233 | Home | −23.4 | 98% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 4:30 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | −1.2 | 54% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 2, 6:30 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −12.9 | 88% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 2:30 PM ET | Drake #176 | Home | −20.4 | 97% |
| 10 | Wed Dec 9, 8:30 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −10.3 | 83% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:00 PM ET | Merrimack #190 | Home | −20.0 | 97% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 19, 2:00 PM ET | Gonzaga #10 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | +0.8 | 47% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 22, 6:00 PM ET | Oakland #147 | Home | −19.6 | 96% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, 8:00 PM ET | Pennsylvania #159 | Home | −20.1 | 97% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 3:45 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Away · conference | +1.4 | 45% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 6:30 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −10.8 | 84% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 8:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | −3.9 | 64% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 10:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | −3.5 | 63% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 4:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −12.2 | 87% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 1:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Away · conference | −1.7 | 56% |
| 21 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −15.8 | 92% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | −4.1 | 65% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −14.3 | 90% |
| 24 | Fri Feb 5, 8:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at State Farm Center · conference | +2.2 | 42% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 10, 6:30 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −14.3 | 90% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 1:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.1 | 26% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Away · conference | −1.7 | 56% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 8:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | −2.6 | 59% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 7:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 30 | Fri Feb 26, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.9 | 40% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 8:30 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 3:45 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | −7.7 | 76% |
Spread is from Michigan State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | PG | 6-2 | JR | Returning | #40 | 15.2 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 32.4 | 27.0 | 14.1 | 2.3 | 8.0 |
| Coen Carr | SF | 6-6 | SR | Returning | #31 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 29.3 | 22.6 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| Anton Bonke | C | 7-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 10.6 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 25.6 | 21.2 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 0.9 |
| Jordan Scott | SF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #53 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 20.8 | 16.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Kur Teng | SG | 6-5 | JR | Returning | #49 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Cam Ward | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #51 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 14.0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 0.4 |
| Ethan Taylor | C | 7-2 | FR | Recruit | #46 | · | · | · | · | 13.9 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.6 |
| Jasiah Jervis | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #36 | · | · | · | · | 13.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Carlos Medlock Jr. | PG | 5-11 | FR | Recruit | #58 | · | · | · | · | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Julius Avent | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #92 | · | · | · | · | 11.4 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Jesse McCulloch | C | 6-11 | SO | Returning | #157 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Colin Walton | SF | 6-8 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Brennan Walton | SF | 6-8 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Kaleb Glenn | SF | 6-7 | RS JR | Returning | #81 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 25.8 | · | · | · | · |
| Matthew Watkins | SG | 6-4 | SR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.