Big East Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 16.4
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET | Mercyhurst #294 | Home | −16.6 | 93% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET | Detroit Mercy #233 | Home | −14.7 | 91% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away | +17.2 | 6% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 2:30 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Neutral at United Center Legends Classic | +2.1 | 42% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, 7:30 PM ET | Northern Illinois #317 | Home | −19.0 | 96% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Chicago State #342 | Home | −21.5 | 97% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 25, 12:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Imperial Arena Battle 4 Atlantis - Signature Series | +6.9 | 27% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 5:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Neutral at Imperial Arena Battle 4 Atlantis - Signature Series | +4.1 | 35% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, 7:30 PM ET | Wagner #331 | Home | −20.4 | 97% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 2:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home | +1.6 | 44% |
| 11 | Wed Dec 9, 7:30 PM ET | New Hampshire #350 | Home | −22.9 | 98% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 12, 6:30 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Home | −5.1 | 68% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, 6:30 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Home · conference | −2.7 | 60% |
| 14 | Wed Dec 23, 6:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Away · conference | +0.2 | 49% |
| 15 | Thu Dec 31, 5:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away · conference | +2.6 | 41% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 8:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Home · conference | +0.4 | 49% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.9 | 24% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.8 | 16% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 1:30 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Home · conference | −3.7 | 63% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Home · conference | −1.6 | 56% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 2:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Away · conference | +1.6 | 44% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 6:30 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Away · conference | +3.1 | 39% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 1:30 PM ET | Butler #80 | Home · conference | −4.1 | 65% |
| 24 | Tue Feb 2, 7:30 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Home · conference | +6.3 | 28% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 1:30 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Home · conference | −1.9 | 57% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 10, 7:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Away · conference | +4.7 | 33% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 17, 7:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.6 | 17% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 2:30 PM ET | UConn #13 | Home · conference | +6.7 | 27% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 30 | Fri Feb 26, 9:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Home · conference | +3.8 | 37% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 6:30 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Away · conference | +2.2 | 42% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 7:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Away · conference | +0.4 | 49% |
Spread is from Marquette's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel James Jr. | PG | 6-0 | SO | Returning | #86 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 29.2 | 24.2 | 14.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Nolan Minessale | SG | 6-5 | JR | Transfer | · | 19.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 31.1 | 24.0 | 13.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Royce Parham | PF | 6-9 | JR | Returning | #90 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 28.8 | 21.0 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| Sananda Fru | PF | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 9.0 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 22.0 | 19.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 1.2 |
| Adrien Stevens | SG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | #90 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 26.1 | 19.1 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Damarius Owens | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #66 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Alex Egbuonu | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #93 | · | · | · | · | 11.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| Caedin Hamilton | PF | 6-9 | JR | Returning | · | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Ethan Johnston | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #176 | · | · | · | · | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Joshua Clark | C | 7-1 | SO | Returning | · | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Michael Phillips II | SF | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #135 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Braeden Brenn | PF | 6-8 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Colin Porter | PG | 5-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 34.3 | · | · | · | · |
| Colton Crowdis | PG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Ian Miletic | SF | 6-7 | RS FR | Returning | #165 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Nash Walker | SG | 6-6 | RS FR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.