Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 22.4
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM ET | Chattanooga #265 | Home | −26.1 | 99% |
| 2 | Sat Nov 7, time TBA | Morehead State #279 | Home | −26.5 | 99% |
| 3 | Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Memphis #89 | Away | −12.0 | 86% |
| 4 | Thu Nov 19, 8:00 PM ET | Stetson #322 | Home | −29.8 | >99% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 24, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Sixteen | +0.6 | 48% |
| 6 | Tue Dec 1, 9:00 PM ET | Texas #20 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −5.4 | 69% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | +3.9 | 36% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 12, 4:00 PM ET | Kentucky #26 Top 5 hardest | Away | −1.8 | 57% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 16, 9:00 PM ET | Long Island University #316 | Home | −29.8 | >99% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 1:30 PM ET | Eastern Michigan #180 | Home | −22.4 | 98% |
| 11 | Wed Dec 30, 8:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | −7.2 | 74% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −14.1 | 90% |
| 13 | Tue Jan 5, 9:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 9, 2:15 PM ET | SMU #50 | Away · conference | −6.9 | 74% |
| 15 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −16.3 | 93% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Away · conference | −7.4 | 75% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | −6.0 | 71% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Baylor #43 | Neutral at Gainbridge Fieldhouse | −7.4 | 75% |
| 19 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −13.6 | 89% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −14.4 | 91% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 9:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −14.5 | 91% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 3:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −14.1 | 90% |
| 23 | Mon Feb 8, 6:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | −3.9 | 64% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −11.2 | 85% |
| 25 | Mon Feb 15, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 26 | Sun Feb 21, 4:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | −11.1 | 84% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.5 | 41% |
| 28 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Away · conference | −2.8 | 60% |
| 29 | Sat Mar 6, 12:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home · conference | −5.1 | 68% |
Spread is from Louisville's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
13 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flory Bidunga | C | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | #17 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 31.5 | 22.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 1.2 |
| DeShayne Montgomery | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 30.6 | 21.1 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| Seth Trimble | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #42 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 32.5 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 8.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 20.7 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| Adrian Wooley | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | · | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 22.4 | 16.8 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Obinna Ekezie Jr. | C | 7-2 | FR | Recruit | #18 | · | · | · | · | 14.2 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Jackson Shelstad | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | #27 | 15.6 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 34.8 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Karter Knox | SF | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #22 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 22.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Gabe Dynes | C | 7-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Isaac Ellis | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #268 | · | · | · | · | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Will Hanke | SG | 6-4 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| LJ Wells | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 30.3 | · | · | · | · |
| Boyuong Zhang | SF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #54 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.