Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 21.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Fordham #125 | Home | −17.0 | 94% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET | Middle Tennessee #177 | Home | −20.0 | 97% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 9:30 PM ET | Kentucky #26 | Neutral at United Center State Farm Champions Classic | −2.2 | 58% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 17, 9:30 PM ET | UNLV #90 | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Eight | −12.1 | 86% |
| 5 | Mon Nov 23, time TBA | Denver #228 | Home | −22.8 | 98% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 27, 5:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Home | −4.8 | 67% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | Northern Iowa #86 | Home | −12.5 | 87% |
| 8 | Sun Dec 6, 5:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Neutral at T-Mobile Center | −6.6 | 73% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 8:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Away | +2.1 | 42% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 12:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Neutral at Madison Square Garden CBS Sports Classic | −3.2 | 62% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 22, 6:00 PM ET | Indiana State #201 | Home | −21.8 | 98% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, 8:00 PM ET | New Orleans #207 | Home | −22.4 | 98% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 1:30 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −8.7 | 79% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 6, 11:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Away · conference | −10.3 | 83% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 1:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −14.1 | 90% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −8.8 | 79% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 8:30 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | −0.1 | 50% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −11.6 | 85% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 12:30 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | −10.6 | 83% |
| 21 | Mon Feb 1, 9:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +6.8 | 27% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 | Home · conference | +0.2 | 49% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | −11.1 | 84% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.5 | 34% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | −7.6 | 75% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, time TBA | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.7 | 33% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, time TBA | TCU #42 | Away · conference | −3.2 | 61% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −15.9 | 93% |
| 29 | Mon Mar 1, 9:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +0.4 | 48% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 1:30 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | −3.4 | 62% |
Spread is from Kansas's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 16.4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 33.4 | 21.3 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Melvin Council Jr. | PG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | · | 12.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 34.8 | 21.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Keanu Dawes | PF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | #145 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 30.8 | 20.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 1.5 |
| Dennis Parker Jr. | SF | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | #102 | 18.3 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 29.3 | 19.1 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| Christian Reeves | C | 7-2 | SR | Transfer | #143 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 21.4 | 18.4 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 0.4 |
| Tyran Stokes | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #1 | · | · | · | · | 16.5 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| Taylen Kinney | PG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | #23 | · | · | · | · | 13.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Davion Adkins | PF | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | #64 | · | · | · | · | 10.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Kohl Rosario | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #176 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Luke Barnett | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #127 | · | · | · | · | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Trent Perry | SF | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #108 | · | · | · | · | 9.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Will Thengvall | SG | 6-4 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Tre White | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #38 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 31.3 | · | · | · | · |
| Paul Mbiya | C | 7-0 | JR | Returning | · | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 5.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Atticus Richmond | PF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #373 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Grant Mordini | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #370 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.