Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 11.7
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, time TBA | South Dakota State #231 | Home | −10.3 | 83% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET | Cal State Northridge #232 | Home | −11.2 | 85% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 9:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Home | +2.8 | 40% |
| 4 | Mon Nov 16, time TBA | Montana #220 | Home | −10.0 | 82% |
| 5 | Fri Nov 20, time TBA | Campbell #163 | Home | −7.2 | 74% |
| 6 | Wed Nov 25, 12:30 AM ET | Gonzaga #10 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | +15.3 | 8% |
| 7 | Fri Dec 4, 7:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Away | +7.6 | 24% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 8, time TBA | IU Indianapolis #284 | Home | −13.8 | 90% |
| 9 | Fri Dec 11, 8:30 PM ET | Wichita State #61 | Neutral at T-Mobile Center Wildcat Classic | +5.2 | 32% |
| 10 | Fri Dec 18, time TBA | Little Rock #289 | Home | −13.0 | 88% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Lindenwood #245 | Home | −11.9 | 86% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Omaha #287 | Home | −12.9 | 88% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | +10.2 | 18% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 8:30 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +16.2 | 7% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +14.7 | 9% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 8:30 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | +7.9 | 24% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | +6.0 | 29% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 8:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | +6.8 | 27% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | +11.6 | 15% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 6:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +18.5 | 5% |
| 21 | Wed Feb 3, 9:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −1.0 | 54% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 10, time TBA | Utah #98 | Away · conference | +2.7 | 40% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 3:30 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | +13.4 | 11% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | +2.4 | 42% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 6:30 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | +13.7 | 11% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 | Home · conference | +13.8 | 11% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +15.9 | 7% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, time TBA | UCF #47 | Away · conference | +9.1 | 20% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Cincinnati #25 | Home · conference | +9.4 | 20% |
Spread is from Kansas State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Rechsteiner | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | #168 | 12.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 27.8 | 21.0 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Jaden Schutt | SG | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #66 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 24.6 | 18.0 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Montana Wheeler | PG | 5-10 | SO | Transfer | · | 8.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 22.3 | 17.8 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| JT Rock | C | 7-1 | SR | Transfer | #113 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| Isaiah Abraham | SF | 6-7 | JR | Transfer | #63 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 19.9 | 15.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Andrej Kostic | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | · | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Pape N'Diaye | C | 7-0 | JR | Transfer | #145 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Devin Hutcherson | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #262 | · | · | · | · | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Jaylen Alexander | PG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Brock Vice | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #275 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| Dez Lindsay | SF | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 20.5 | · | · | · | · |
| Timo Malovec | SF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.9 | · | · | · | · |
| Matt Gilhool | PF | 6-11 | SO | Transfer | #90 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Nash Stark | SF | 6-7 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.