Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 20.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET | Lipscomb #188 | Home | −16.7 | 94% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:30 PM ET | Eastern Illinois #306 | Home | −21.2 | 97% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Neutral at Tyson Events Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −3.8 | 64% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 3:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Neutral at Casey's Center | −4.6 | 66% |
| 5 | Fri Nov 20, 7:30 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Away | −3.7 | 63% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, time TBA | UMBC #192 | Home | −16.2 | 93% |
| 7 | Sat Nov 28, time TBA | Prairie View A&M #280 | Home | −21.0 | 97% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 7:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.2 | 38% |
| 9 | Mon Dec 7, 7:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | −3.4 | 62% |
| 10 | Thu Dec 10, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Home | +3.5 | 37% |
| 11 | Sun Dec 13, 6:00 PM ET | Western Illinois #355 | Home | −26.2 | 99% |
| 12 | Thu Dec 17, 9:00 PM ET | Bethune-Cookman #256 | Home | −19.6 | 96% |
| 13 | Mon Dec 21, 7:00 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Neutral at Casey's Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | +1.5 | 45% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, 8:30 PM ET | South Dakota #321 | Home | −23.4 | 98% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 57% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 8:30 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | −3.6 | 63% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 6:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −10.1 | 82% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 8:30 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −6.3 | 72% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.9 | 33% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 4:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −11.5 | 85% |
| 21 | Tue Jan 26, 6:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Away · conference | +2.0 | 43% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 5:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | +1.1 | 46% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 10:30 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +0.4 | 49% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | −0.3 | 51% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 10, 8:30 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −2.8 | 60% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Home · conference | +1.7 | 44% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 1:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.5 | 17% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 8:30 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | +0.2 | 49% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −8.9 | 79% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 8:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.5 | 25% |
Spread is from Iowa's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Koch | PF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #85 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 28.4 | 21.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Andrew McKeever | C | 7-3 | JR | Transfer | · | 8.2 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 23.2 | 21.6 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 1.6 |
| TyReek Coleman | PG | 6-3 | SO | Transfer | · | 10.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 22.8 | 20.6 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Kael Combs | PG | 6-3 | SR | Returning | · | 6.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 26.1 | 19.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Cam Manyawu | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | · | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 |
| Isaia Howard | SG | 6-5 | JR | Returning | · | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 18.2 | 16.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Tate Sage | SG | 6-7 | SO | Returning | · | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 16.1 | 16.7 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Ethan Harris | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #115 | · | · | · | · | 10.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Jaidyn Coon | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #202 | · | · | · | · | 10.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Trevin Jirak | C | 6-11 | SO | Returning | · | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Joey Matteoni | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | · | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Jacob Koch | PG | 6-2 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Peyton McCollum | PG | 6-2 | RS FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Trey Thompson | PF | 6-8 | RS FR | Returning | #125 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.