Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 24.1
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM ET | Memphis #89 | Neutral at Sanford Pentagon | −14.6 | 91% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET | Southern Miss #214 | Home | −24.8 | 99% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Southern #300 | Home | −29.0 | >99% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Niagara #333 | Home | −29.5 | >99% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 24, 5:30 PM ET | San Diego State #63 | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Sixteen | −10.8 | 84% |
| 6 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | Alcorn State #352 | Home | −33.6 | >99% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 8:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home | −6.1 | 71% |
| 8 | Thu Dec 10, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 Top 5 hardest | Away | −3.5 | 63% |
| 9 | Sun Dec 13, 6:00 PM ET | North Carolina Central #341 | Home | −32.0 | >99% |
| 10 | Fri Dec 18, time TBA | Missouri State #206 | Neutral at T-Mobile Center NABC Hall of Fame Classic | −21.5 | 97% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Northern Arizona #323 | Home | −29.0 | >99% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, 8:00 PM ET | New Hampshire #350 | Home | −33.4 | >99% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 11:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −12.4 | 87% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | −13.2 | 88% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.4 | 34% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +1.8 | 44% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 9:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | −7.4 | 75% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 2:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Away · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 6:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −18.5 | 95% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 9:30 PM ET | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −16.7 | 94% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 12:45 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 10, 9:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | −8.9 | 79% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 8:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Home · conference | −6.6 | 73% |
| 26 | Fri Feb 19, 10:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | −5.9 | 70% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 5:30 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | −9.7 | 81% |
| 29 | Mon Mar 1, 9:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −0.4 | 52% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 3:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −11.0 | 84% |
Spread is from Iowa State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Prather Jr. | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 34.1 | 21.0 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Jaquan Johnson | PG | 5-11 | JR | Transfer | · | 16.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 30.4 | 20.6 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Leon Bond III | SF | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #67 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 32.8 | 20.1 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| Blake Buchanan | C | 6-10 | SR | Returning | #80 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 17.0 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Killyan Toure | PG | 6-3 | SO | Returning | #166 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 25.3 | 16.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Tre Singleton | PF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | #193 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 25.0 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| Taj Manning | PF | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | #219 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 20.7 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| Jamarion Batemon | SG | 6-3 | SO | Returning | #50 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 15.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Dominykas Pleta | PF | 6-11 | SO | Returning | · | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Christian Wiggins | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #132 | · | · | · | · | 8.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Dorian Rinaldo-Komlan | PF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #222 | · | · | · | · | 8.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Yusef Gray Jr. | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #173 | · | · | · | · | 8.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Xzavion Mitchell | SF | 6-6 | RS FR | Returning | #82 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Anthony Rise | PG | 6-0 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Tamin Lipsey | PG | 6-1 | SR | Returning | #190 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 31.4 | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.