Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 24.8
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 8:00 PM ET | Fairleigh Dickinson #325 | Home | −29.0 | >99% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, 8:30 PM ET | Pennsylvania #159 | Home | −22.2 | 98% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away | +1.4 | 45% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET | Sam Houston #138 | Home | −21.4 | 97% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away | +5.2 | 32% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 9:00 PM ET | Eastern Illinois #306 | Home | −27.8 | 99% |
| 7 | Mon Nov 23, 8:00 PM ET | Winthrop #143 | Home | −21.6 | 98% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 6:00 PM ET | Western Kentucky #152 | Home | −22.0 | 98% |
| 9 | Fri Dec 4, 7:00 PM ET | UConn #13 | Neutral at United Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −2.5 | 59% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 7:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | −11.1 | 84% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −17.9 | 95% |
| 12 | Sun Dec 20, 7:30 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Neutral at Enterprise Center | −9.1 | 80% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 29, 7:00 PM ET | Seattle U #114 | Home | −18.6 | 95% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | −5.8 | 70% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 5, 9:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | −6.2 | 71% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 9, 4:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | −7.8 | 76% |
| 17 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −8.8 | 79% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −12.5 | 87% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | −4.8 | 67% |
| 20 | Sun Jan 24, 12:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | −5.5 | 69% |
| 21 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | −10.0 | 82% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | North Carolina #33 | Neutral at Bridgestone Arena Nashville Hoops Showdown | −6.8 | 73% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 2, 9:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | −9.9 | 82% |
| 24 | Fri Feb 5, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at State Farm Center · conference | −2.2 | 58% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.6 | 34% |
| 26 | Fri Feb 12, 8:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −2.4 | 59% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | −12.7 | 88% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | −10.4 | 83% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 10:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | −9.0 | 79% |
| 30 | Sun Feb 28, 1:30 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | −9.9 | 82% |
| 31 | Wed Mar 3, 6:30 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −12.5 | 87% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 8:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | −7.5 | 75% |
Spread is from Illinois's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Mirkovic | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | · | 13.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 29.5 | 21.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 |
| Stefan Vaaks | SG | 6-7 | SO | Transfer | · | 15.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 31.5 | 20.5 | 11.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Andrej Stojakovic | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #24 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 26.3 | 18.5 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Tomislav Ivisic | C | 7-1 | SR | Returning | · | 10.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 25.4 | 16.8 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic | C | 7-2 | SR | Returning | · | 6.4 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 17.2 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Jake Davis | SF | 6-6 | SR | Returning | · | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 19.6 | 13.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Quentin Coleman | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #24 | · | · | · | · | 13.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Lucas Morillo | PG | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #50 | · | · | · | · | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ethan Brown | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #192 | · | · | · | · | 8.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Landon Davis | PF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #213 | · | · | · | · | 8.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Lincoln Williams | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #172 | · | · | · | · | 8.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Zavier Zens | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #163 | · | · | · | · | 8.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Jason Jakstys | C | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #164 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Blake Fagbemi | PG | 6-0 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Quentin McCoy | PG | 6-1 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.