Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 25.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM ET | La Salle #239 | Home | −26.6 | 99% |
| 2 | Sun Nov 8, 8:30 PM ET | California #94 | Neutral at Tahoe Blue Event Center Lake Tahoe Classic | −16.5 | 93% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, time TBA | Jacksonville State #229 | Home | −25.8 | 99% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 17, 2:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Eight | −16.3 | 93% |
| 5 | Fri Nov 27, 7:30 PM ET | Oakland #147 | Home | −23.6 | 98% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 29, time TBA | Queens University #160 | Home | −24.2 | 99% |
| 7 | Wed Dec 2, time TBA | Central Arkansas #164 | Home | −23.8 | 98% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 5, 5:30 PM ET | Texas State #154 | Home | −23.0 | 98% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 8, 6:30 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Neutral at Madison Square Garden Jimmy V Classic | −7.2 | 74% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 13, 3:30 PM ET | LSU #53 | Neutral at Toyota Center (Houston) Houston Hoopfest | −11.8 | 86% |
| 11 | Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Neutral at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena Jacksonville Hoops Showdown | −15.8 | 92% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #172 | Home | −23.9 | 99% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | −11.8 | 86% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 8:30 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −16.2 | 93% |
| 15 | Sun Jan 10, 5:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | −8.2 | 77% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | −4.4 | 66% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −14.4 | 91% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | −4.6 | 66% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −11.5 | 85% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 2:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | −9.7 | 81% |
| 21 | Mon Feb 1, 9:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | −6.8 | 73% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 10, 8:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Away · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 4:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −18.5 | 95% |
| 25 | Mon Feb 15, 9:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 26 | Sun Feb 21, 4:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | −15.3 | 92% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 9:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −18.4 | 95% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 12:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | −9.2 | 80% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
Spread is from Houston's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delrecco Gillespie | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 17.7 | 11.3 | 1.7 | 32.2 | 23.7 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 1.2 |
| Corey Hadnot II | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 20.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 33.2 | 22.6 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Joseph Tugler | PF | 6-8 | SR | Returning | #73 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 23.5 | 18.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 |
| Braden East | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | · | 12.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 23.9 | 17.9 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
| Chendall Weaver | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 20.9 | 17.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| Dedan Thomas Jr. | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | #36 | 15.3 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 29.4 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Mercy Miller | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | #43 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Arafan Diane | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #31 | · | · | · | · | 12.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| Chase McCarty | SF | 6-5 | SO | Returning | #77 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| Ikenna Alozie | PG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | #48 | · | · | · | · | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Tyus Thomas | PG | 6-0 | FR | Recruit | #187 | · | · | · | · | 9.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Kordel Jefferson | PG | 6-3 | RS SO | Returning | #139 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Bryce Jackson | SG | 6-6 | RS FR | Returning | #169 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Djafar Silimana | C | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.