Pac-12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 16 in conference · expected wins 24.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas | −3.0 | 61% |
| 2 | Sat Nov 7, time TBA | New Mexico State #194 | Home | −22.4 | 98% |
| 3 | Sat Nov 14, time TBA | LSU #53 | Home Bad Boy Mowers Series | −10.8 | 84% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Montana State #128 | Home | −18.9 | 96% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 25, 12:30 AM ET | Kansas State #101 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | −15.3 | 92% |
| 6 | Wed Dec 2, time TBA | Eastern Oregon non-D-I | Home | −49.9 | >99% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 11:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Honda Center | −6.9 | 73% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 9, time TBA | Incarnate Word #223 | Home | −23.6 | 98% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 10:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away | −7.6 | 76% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 2:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −0.8 | 53% |
| 11 | Thu Dec 31, time TBA | Cornell #171 | Home | −22.8 | 98% |
| 12 | Wed Jan 6, time TBA | Washington State #165 | Away · conference | −17.5 | 94% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 9, time TBA | Colorado State #85 | Home · conference | −14.0 | 90% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 13, time TBA | Fresno State #137 | Away · conference | −15.9 | 93% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 16, time TBA | Boise State #91 | Home · conference | −15.0 | 91% |
| 16 | Thu Jan 21, time TBA | Utah State #35 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −3.6 | 63% |
| 17 | Sun Jan 24, time TBA | Oregon State #117 | Away · conference | −13.5 | 89% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 27, time TBA | Fresno State #137 | Home · conference | −20.0 | 97% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Oregon #75 | Neutral at Climate Pledge Arena | −11.3 | 85% |
| 20 | Thu Feb 4, time TBA | Texas State #154 | Home · conference | −20.7 | 97% |
| 21 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | San Diego State #63 | Away · conference | −7.7 | 76% |
| 22 | Wed Feb 10, time TBA | Boise State #91 | Away · conference | −10.9 | 84% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 13, time TBA | Utah State #35 | Home · conference | −7.7 | 76% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 17, time TBA | Washington State #165 | Home · conference | −21.7 | 98% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 20, 8:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | +4.9 | 33% |
| 26 | Thu Feb 25, time TBA | Texas State #154 | Away · conference | −16.6 | 93% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | San Diego State #63 | Home · conference | −11.9 | 86% |
| 28 | Wed Mar 3, time TBA | Oregon State #117 | Home · conference | −17.5 | 94% |
| 29 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Colorado State #85 | Away · conference | −10.0 | 82% |
Spread is from Gonzaga's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett | PG | 5-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 21.3 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Xaivian Lee | PG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 27.4 | 19.4 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Massamba Diop | C | 7-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 29.6 | 19.1 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| Chauncey Wiggins | PF | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #216 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 27.8 | 19.0 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Braden Huff | PF | 6-10 | SR | Returning | #166 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 25.4 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| Davis Fogle | SG | 6-7 | SO | Returning | #37 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 16.7 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Isiah Harwell | SG | 6-6 | SO | Transfer | #13 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Luca Foster | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #59 | · | · | · | · | 9.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Sam Funches | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #109 | · | · | · | · | 8.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Alonzo Metz | PG | 5-11 | SO | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Carter Nilson | SF | 6-5 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Izan Almansa | PF | 6-10 | JR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Juwan Ekanga | PG | 6-6 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Nathan De Sousa | PG | 6-3 | SR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Parker Jefferson | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #149 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.