Southeastern Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 24.4
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 6:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Neutral at Benchmark International Arena Orion180 Tipoff Classic | −5.4 | 69% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | Jacksonville #263 | Home | −26.9 | 99% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 6:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away | −12.8 | 88% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET | Merrimack #190 | Home | −23.7 | 98% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 4:30 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Eight | −13.3 | 89% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, time TBA | Milwaukee #259 | Home | −28.0 | 99% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 1, 9:30 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +1.0 | 46% |
| 8 | Sun Dec 6, 12:00 PM ET | Vermont #211 | Home | −24.9 | 99% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 12:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Neutral at Kia Center Hall of Fame Series - Orlando | −18.3 | 95% |
| 10 | Fri Dec 18, 6:00 PM ET | Grand Canyon #57 | Neutral at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena Jacksonville Hoops Showdown | −11.1 | 84% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, 7:00 PM ET | Florida A&M #319 | Home | −31.8 | >99% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, 6:00 PM ET | Long Island University #316 | Home | −31.6 | >99% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Texas #20 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −2.8 | 60% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Home · conference | −9.5 | 81% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 11:00 AM ET | Vanderbilt #18 | Home · conference | −7.0 | 74% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Away · conference | −13.4 | 89% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Alabama #23 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Home · conference | −10.7 | 84% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 4:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Away · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −0.0 | 50% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Home · conference | −18.4 | 95% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Texas #20 | Home · conference | −7.0 | 74% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Away · conference | −5.8 | 70% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Home · conference | −12.1 | 86% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 8:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Away · conference | −8.8 | 79% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 8:30 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Home · conference | −11.2 | 84% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 9:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Home · conference | −13.2 | 88% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 3:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −1.9 | 57% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 8:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Away · conference | −14.2 | 90% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Kentucky #26 | Home · conference | −7.6 | 76% |
Spread is from Florida's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen | SG | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #150 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 30.6 | 26.8 | 13.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Thomas Haugh | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | #221 | 17.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 33.3 | 26.1 | 14.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 |
| Alex Condon | PF | 6-11 | SR | Returning | #155 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 30.5 | 24.7 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 3.0 |
| Boogie Fland | PG | 6-3 | JR | Returning | #18 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 30.0 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| Rueben Chinyelu | C | 6-10 | SR | Returning | #144 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 24.5 | 22.1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 0.7 |
| Urban Klavzar | PG | 6-1 | SR | Returning | · | 9.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 20.7 | 17.6 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Isaiah Brown | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | #110 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| CJ Ingram | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #23 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Viktor Mikic | C | 6-11 | JR | Returning | · | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Alex Lloyd | SG | 6-3 | SO | Returning | #40 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Alex Kovatchev | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | · | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| AJ Brown | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #185 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 26.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Arturas Butajevas | PF | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Domen Petrovic | SF | 6-9 | JR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jones Lay | C | 6-11 | FR | Recruit | #245 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.