Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 15.1
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 8:30 PM ET | Florida A&M #319 | Neutral at Benchmark International Arena Orion180 Tipoff Classic | −15.3 | 92% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Troy #129 | Home | −7.1 | 74% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 6:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Home | +12.8 | 12% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #172 | Home | −9.6 | 81% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Ball State #273 | Home | −13.5 | 89% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, time TBA | Green Bay #167 | Home | −9.1 | 80% |
| 7 | Tue Nov 24, 9:00 PM ET | UNC Asheville #278 | Home | −13.9 | 90% |
| 8 | Sun Nov 29, 2:00 PM ET | West Florida non-D-I | Neutral at Pensacola Bay Center Battle at the Bay | −35.8 | >99% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, 7:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Away ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +14.2 | 10% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | Dayton #73 | Home | −1.1 | 54% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 3:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Neutral at Toyota Center (Houston) Houston Hoopfest | +6.5 | 28% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, 7:00 PM ET | Jacksonville #263 | Home | −13.0 | 88% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena Jacksonville Hoops Showdown | +15.8 | 8% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 22, 6:00 PM ET | Bethune-Cookman #256 | Home | −13.6 | 89% |
| 15 | Tue Dec 29, 6:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | California #94 | Away · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 5:30 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Away · conference | +2.9 | 40% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | +4.9 | 33% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 4:30 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | +3.2 | 39% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Home · conference | +1.4 | 45% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Away · conference | +11.3 | 15% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Home · conference | −1.1 | 54% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 3:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −2.2 | 58% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 3, 6:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Away · conference | +10.3 | 17% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 2:00 PM ET | Miami #24 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.3 | 15% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 3:15 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home · conference | +7.2 | 26% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +19.4 | 4% |
| 28 | Sun Feb 21, 4:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 | Home · conference | +11.1 | 16% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 6:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Home · conference | −5.5 | 69% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Away · conference | +11.3 | 15% |
| 31 | Wed Mar 3, 6:30 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 2:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | +7.0 | 26% |
Spread is from Florida State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Robinson II | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #151 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 27.1 | 20.1 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Sebastian Rancik | PF | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | #109 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 28.1 | 19.6 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| Alex Steen | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | · | 6.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 19.8 | 17.6 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 0.9 |
| Cooper Schwieger | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 20.2 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Marcis Ponder | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #44 | · | · | · | · | 14.3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| Shon Abaev | SF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | #27 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| AJ Swinton | SF | 6-6 | JR | Returning | #150 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Martay Barnes | SG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | #87 | · | · | · | · | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Brandon Bass Jr. | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #111 | · | · | · | · | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Collin Paul | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #129 | · | · | · | · | 10.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Jasen Lopez | PG | 6-0 | SO | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Jalen Crawford | PG | 6-0 | JR | Walk-on | · | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Kam Taylor | SG | 6-7 | JR | Transfer | · | 18.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 34.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Amare Robinson | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Elisee Assui | SG | 6-5 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| JD Jones | SF | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.