Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 22.6
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | American University #187 | Home | −18.5 | 95% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | Green Bay #167 | Home | −17.1 | 94% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, time TBA | Minnesota #87 | Home | −10.7 | 83% |
| 4 | Sat Nov 14, time TBA | Dayton #73 | Away | −5.7 | 70% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, time TBA | Youngstown State #242 | Home | −21.1 | 97% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, time TBA | UMass Lowell #258 | Home | −22.2 | 98% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 11:00 AM ET | Georgia #40 | Neutral at State Farm Field House ESPN Events Invitational - Magic Bracket | −3.1 | 61% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 4:30 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Neutral at State Farm Field House ESPN Events Invitational - Magic Bracket | −11.6 | 85% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 2, time TBA | Monmouth #205 | Home | −19.5 | 96% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 8:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Home Crosstown Shootout | −9.5 | 81% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 14, time TBA | Stetson #322 | Home | −25.4 | 99% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 19, 9:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Neutral at Heritage Bank Center | +0.5 | 48% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 22, time TBA | Marist #195 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Bethune-Cookman #256 | Home | −22.1 | 98% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.3 | 42% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 10:30 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, time TBA | Utah #98 | Away · conference | −8.3 | 77% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 6:30 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | −5.2 | 68% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | −2.9 | 60% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 8:30 PM ET | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | +0.1 | 50% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −7.9 | 76% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 7:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | −9.0 | 79% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.7 | 40% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 2:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | −4.1 | 64% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | −1.3 | 55% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, time TBA | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 8:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +6.6 | 27% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 6:30 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −13.7 | 89% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 6:30 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +6.3 | 28% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +4.9 | 33% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
Spread is from Cincinnati's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Collins Jr. | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | #187 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 30.8 | 17.1 | 9.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Javontae Campbell | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 18.7 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 34.1 | 16.8 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Tyler Tejada | SF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | · | 17.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 35.5 | 16.6 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Trevian Carson | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 31.6 | 15.4 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| Tylen Riley | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 27.7 | 14.8 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Riley Allenspach | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #310 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 24.9 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Myles Colvin | SG | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #77 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 27.1 | 14.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Akai Fleming | SG | 6-4 | SO | Transfer | #85 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 25.5 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Jayden Hastings | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #175 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 22.6 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| Eric Mahaffey | SF | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | · | 7.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 21.9 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Adlan Elamin | SF | 6-10 | SO | Transfer | #139 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 19.5 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Elijah Perryman | PG | 6-2 | SO | Transfer | · | 4.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Grant Darbyshire | PG | 6-2 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| David Iweze | PF | 6-9 | SO | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Deshaun Vaden | C | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.