Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 15.2
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 8:00 PM ET | Adams State non-D-I | Home | −36.6 | >99% |
| 2 | Wed Nov 4, 9:00 PM ET | Radford #269 | Home | −12.8 | 88% |
| 3 | Sun Nov 8, 8:30 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Tahoe Blue Event Center Lake Tahoe Classic | +16.5 | 7% |
| 4 | Wed Nov 11, 11:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Home | +5.2 | 32% |
| 5 | Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET | Utah Tech #208 | Home | −9.6 | 81% |
| 6 | Thu Nov 19, 10:00 PM ET | East Texas A&M #248 | Home | −11.8 | 86% |
| 7 | Mon Nov 23, 10:00 PM ET | Alabama State #313 | Home | −15.6 | 92% |
| 8 | Sat Nov 28, 8:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Neutral at Sanford Pentagon | +0.6 | 48% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 2, 9:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Away | +1.6 | 44% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 6, 8:00 PM ET | Vanderbilt #18 | Home | +8.7 | 21% |
| 11 | Thu Dec 10, 10:00 PM ET | SE Louisiana #299 | Home | −13.4 | 89% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 12, 3:00 PM ET | UC Riverside #268 | Home | −12.3 | 87% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 3:00 PM ET | Southern #300 | Home | −14.3 | 90% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 22, 6:00 PM ET | Northeastern #303 | Home | −14.7 | 91% |
| 15 | Wed Dec 30, 4:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | +10.2 | 18% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 2, 2:15 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +20.1 | 3% |
| 17 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Home · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 9, 4:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Home · conference | +8.1 | 23% |
| 19 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +16.3 | 7% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Away · conference | +4.1 | 35% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 9:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −0.1 | 50% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Home · conference | +7.1 | 26% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 5:30 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | +2.4 | 41% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 3, 8:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Away · conference | +7.3 | 25% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.1 | 14% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 10, 9:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Home · conference | +2.6 | 41% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 13, 10:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | +8.0 | 23% |
| 28 | Wed Feb 17, 7:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Away · conference | +2.9 | 40% |
| 29 | Sat Feb 20, 12:00 PM ET | NC State #29 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.2 | 15% |
| 30 | Wed Feb 24, 9:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Home · conference | −3.8 | 63% |
| 31 | Sat Feb 27, 4:30 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | +0.1 | 50% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 4:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Away · conference | +4.0 | 36% |
Spread is from California's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
18 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Cooper | PG | 6-3 | SO | Transfer | · | 13.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 26.5 | 23.3 | 10.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Nojus Indrusaitis | SG | 6-5 | JR | Transfer | #68 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 23.5 | 23.1 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Jordan Ross | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #139 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 20.9 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Semetri Carr | PG | 6-1 | SO | Returning | #175 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Jake Wilkins | SF | 6-9 | SO | Transfer | #45 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 10.2 | 16.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Dionycius Bakare | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #254 | · | · | · | · | 13.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Nicolas Mitrovic | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #228 | · | · | · | · | 13.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| Amier Ali | SF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | #71 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Mantas Kocanas | C | 6-11 | JR | Returning | · | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Luke Butler | SG | 6-4 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Sammie Yeanay | PF | 6-9 | JR | Returning | #98 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut | C | 7-0 | JR | Returning | #244 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| BJ Fisher | PG | 6-1 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Lee Dort | C | 6-10 | SR | Returning | #100 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 23.1 | · | · | · | · |
| Dominykas Daubaris | PF | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Gabe Sularski | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #189 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jorell Clark | PG | 6-2 | RS FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jovani Ruff | SG | 6-5 | RS FR | Returning | #124 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.