Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 20.2
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Neutral at Delta Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −0.6 | 52% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Omaha #287 | Home | −23.0 | 98% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Queens University #160 | Home | −17.8 | 95% |
| 4 | Thu Nov 12, time TBA | Montana State #128 | Home | −15.3 | 92% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, time TBA | Northern Colorado #197 | Home | −19.3 | 96% |
| 6 | Mon Nov 23, 5:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Neutral at Lahaina Civic Center Southwest Maui Invitational | −6.0 | 71% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 4:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Neutral at Delta Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −5.8 | 70% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 9, 10:00 PM ET | Utah State #35 | Home | −3.7 | 63% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 4:30 PM ET | Cal State Fullerton #238 | Home | −22.7 | 98% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 15, time TBA | Weber State #200 | Home | −19.8 | 96% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 19, 10:00 PM ET | San Diego State #63 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −5.8 | 70% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 22, time TBA | La Salle #239 | Home | −20.9 | 97% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 10:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −4.2 | 65% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 6, 10:30 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Home · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 1:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | +0.7 | 47% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 11:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.8 | 24% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 10:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −12.0 | 86% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 9:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.4 | 25% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 2:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −6.3 | 72% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Away · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, 2:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.7 | 19% |
| 22 | Tue Feb 2, 8:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | −5.0 | 67% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 6, 9:30 PM ET | Utah #98 | Away · conference | −7.9 | 76% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 3:30 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −13.4 | 89% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −7.4 | 75% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 2:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | −4.7 | 67% |
| 27 | Mon Feb 22, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.4 | 38% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 12:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Away · conference | −1.9 | 57% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 9:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | −8.0 | 77% |
| 30 | Fri Mar 5, 9:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.1 | 26% |
Spread is from BYU's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Wright III | PG | 6-1 | JR | Returning | #27 | 18.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 34.8 | 27.8 | 15.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Jaxon Kohler | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #54 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 27.7 | 27.4 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 1.5 |
| Collin Chandler | SG | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #36 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 27.1 | 22.2 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Bruce Branch III | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #6 | · | · | · | · | 20.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| Jake Wahlin | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 20.4 | 17.2 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| Tyler Betsey | SF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | #50 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 18.1 | 16.4 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Khadim Mboup | PF | 6-10 | JR | Returning | · | 2.2 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 15.6 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
| Dean Rueckert | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #80 | · | · | · | · | 12.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| Nate Pickens | PG | 6-3 | RS SR | Returning | · | 9.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 27.3 | · | · | · | · |
| Dawson Baker | SG | 6-4 | RS SR | Returning | · | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 19.8 | · | · | · | · |
| Brody Kozlowski | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #113 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | · | · | · | · |
| Adam Stewart | C | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | · | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Brooks Bahr | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #174 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Dovydas Buika | PG | 6-6 | FR | International | #309 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Petar Ostojic | C | 7-1 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.