Big East Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview

Butler

#80of 364 D-I teams in the ATO model rating

Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played

Rating line · rank among 364

How it scores, how it defends, how fast it plays

Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.

Adjusted offense
106.0#76 of 364 · points per 100 possessions
Adjusted defense
96.4#100 of 364 · allowed per 100, lower is better
Tempo
69.5#80 of 364 · possessions per 40, #1 is fastest
Net rating
+9.6#80 of 364 · +6.5 points a game vs average

32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 15.5

Projected 16-16 overall, 7-13 in the Big East

Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.

Overall
16-16
15.5 expected wins
Conference
7-13
7.1 expected wins
Non-conf.
8-4
8.4 expected wins

Five hardest games, lowest win probability

#Date (ET)OpponentSiteSpreadWin prob.
1Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETLafayette #327Home−18.195%
2Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM ETFairleigh Dickinson #325Home−17.394%
3Sun Nov 8, time TBABoise State #91Away+0.847%
4Fri Nov 13, 6:30 PM ETPittsburgh #83Home−2.559%
5Tue Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETWestern Carolina #189Home−10.583%
6Thu Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETNortheastern #303Home−16.393%
7Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ETNebraska #15 Top 5 hardestNeutral at Credit Union 1 Arena Bad Boy Mowers Series+10.517%
8Fri Nov 27, 3:00 PM ETBellarmine #307Home−15.792%
9Wed Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETPresbyterian #251Home−12.988%
10Sun Dec 6, 3:00 PM ETNorth Carolina #33 Top 5 hardestAway+8.821%
11Sat Dec 12, 2:00 PM ETProvidence #46Away · conference+6.827%
12Wed Dec 16, 7:00 PM ETSouth Carolina Upstate #262Home−13.789%
13Sat Dec 19, 3:00 PM ETGeorgia Tech #112Neutral at Gainbridge Fieldhouse Indy Classic−3.562%
14Wed Dec 23, 6:00 PM ETMarquette #68Home · conference−0.251%
15Thu Dec 31, 7:00 PM ETUConn #13Home · conference+8.622%
16Sun Jan 3, 5:00 PM ETSt. John's #17Home · conference+8.223%
17Sat Jan 9, 4:00 PM ETDePaul #78Away · conference+2.342%
18Tue Jan 12, 8:00 PM ETXavier #71Away · conference+3.637%
19Fri Jan 15, 6:00 PM ETVillanova #28Home · conference+5.730%
20Mon Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETGeorgetown #66Home · conference+0.050%
21Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ETUConn #13 Top 5 hardestAway · conference+12.613%
22Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ETProvidence #46Home · conference+2.441%
23Sat Jan 30, 1:30 PM ETMarquette #68Away · conference+4.135%
24Wed Feb 3, 6:30 PM ETSeton Hall #58Away · conference+5.033%
25Sat Feb 6, 3:30 PM ETXavier #71Home · conference−0.753%
26Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ETGeorgetown #66Away · conference+4.135%
27Wed Feb 17, 8:30 PM ETCreighton #62Home · conference+0.349%
28Sat Feb 20, 12:00 PM ETVillanova #28 Top 5 hardestAway · conference+9.719%
29Tue Feb 23, 8:00 PM ETDePaul #78Home · conference−1.857%
30Sat Feb 27, 1:00 PM ETSt. John's #17 Top 5 hardestAway · conference+12.513%
31Tue Mar 2, 9:30 PM ETCreighton #62Away · conference+4.534%
32Sat Mar 6, 1:30 PM ETSeton Hall #58Home · conference+0.947%

Spread is from Butler's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.

15 players · sorted by projected minutes

Roster

Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.

Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.

PlayerPosHtClassTypeRivals PPGRPGAPGMPG Proj MPGProj PTSProj REBProj AST
Jordan EllerbeeSG6-3SOTransfer·13.13.42.126.925.111.23.11.9
Christian MooreSF6-6SRTransfer·11.23.11.025.122.08.83.00.9
Drayton JonesC6-11SRReturning·6.34.61.419.520.67.65.11.5
Treyson AndersonPF6-9JRTransfer·10.45.30.818.220.610.05.30.9
Eduardo KlafkeSG6-5JRTransfer#1824.62.51.115.017.86.32.91.4
Herly BrutusSF6-7FRRecruit#117····12.64.62.60.6
Ethan McCombPG6-1SRWalk-on·0.30.00.31.28.33.11.00.7
Samis CalderonPF6-8SOTransfer#1440.40.80.34.17.92.41.60.4
Jalen JacksonPG6-2RS SRReturning·9.53.53.822.5····
Asim DulovicSF6-8FRInternational·········
Baron WalkerPG6-3FRRecruit·········
Bryson CardinalPF6-7RS FRReturning·········
Kevin NdzieC7-1RS JRReturning·········
Marko MaricC7-0FRInternational·········
Samu AdlerPG6-6FRInternational·········

PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.

Method · updated 2026-10-07

How these numbers work

The rating

Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.

The games

Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.

The roster

Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.

How it gets graded

Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.

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