Big East Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 15.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM ET | Lafayette #327 | Home | −18.1 | 95% |
| 2 | Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET | Fairleigh Dickinson #325 | Home | −17.3 | 94% |
| 3 | Sun Nov 8, time TBA | Boise State #91 | Away | +0.8 | 47% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 6:30 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home | −2.5 | 59% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET | Western Carolina #189 | Home | −10.5 | 83% |
| 6 | Thu Nov 19, 7:00 PM ET | Northeastern #303 | Home | −16.3 | 93% |
| 7 | Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Credit Union 1 Arena Bad Boy Mowers Series | +10.5 | 17% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET | Bellarmine #307 | Home | −15.7 | 92% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 2, 7:00 PM ET | Presbyterian #251 | Home | −12.9 | 88% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 6, 3:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 Top 5 hardest | Away | +8.8 | 21% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Away · conference | +6.8 | 27% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, 7:00 PM ET | South Carolina Upstate #262 | Home | −13.7 | 89% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, 3:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Neutral at Gainbridge Fieldhouse Indy Classic | −3.5 | 62% |
| 14 | Wed Dec 23, 6:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Home · conference | −0.2 | 51% |
| 15 | Thu Dec 31, 7:00 PM ET | UConn #13 | Home · conference | +8.6 | 22% |
| 16 | Sun Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Home · conference | +8.2 | 23% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 4:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Away · conference | +2.3 | 42% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 8:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Away · conference | +3.6 | 37% |
| 19 | Fri Jan 15, 6:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Home · conference | +5.7 | 30% |
| 20 | Mon Jan 18, 6:30 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Home · conference | +0.0 | 50% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.6 | 13% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Home · conference | +2.4 | 41% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 1:30 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Away · conference | +4.1 | 35% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 3, 6:30 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Away · conference | +5.0 | 33% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 3:30 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Home · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Away · conference | +4.1 | 35% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 17, 8:30 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Home · conference | +0.3 | 49% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 12:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.7 | 19% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 8:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 57% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 1:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +12.5 | 13% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 9:30 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away · conference | +4.5 | 34% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 1:30 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
Spread is from Butler's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ellerbee | SG | 6-3 | SO | Transfer | · | 13.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 26.9 | 25.1 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Christian Moore | SF | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 25.1 | 22.0 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Drayton Jones | C | 6-11 | SR | Returning | · | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 19.5 | 20.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 |
| Treyson Anderson | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | · | 10.4 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 18.2 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 0.9 |
| Eduardo Klafke | SG | 6-5 | JR | Transfer | #182 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 15.0 | 17.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Herly Brutus | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #117 | · | · | · | · | 12.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| Ethan McComb | PG | 6-1 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Samis Calderon | PF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | #144 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Jalen Jackson | PG | 6-2 | RS SR | Returning | · | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 22.5 | · | · | · | · |
| Asim Dulovic | SF | 6-8 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Baron Walker | PG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Bryson Cardinal | PF | 6-7 | RS FR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Kevin Ndzie | C | 7-1 | RS JR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Marko Maric | C | 7-0 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Samu Adler | PG | 6-6 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.