Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 17.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:30 PM ET | Northwestern State #291 | Home | −19.6 | 96% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM ET | Arkansas-Pine Bluff #320 | Home | −23.1 | 98% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Yale #106 | Home | −9.7 | 81% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 3:00 PM ET | Texas #20 | Neutral at Frost Bank Center San Antonio Shootout | +3.9 | 36% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, 12:00 PM ET | Jackson State #357 | Home | −28.2 | 99% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, 10:00 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | +3.8 | 36% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | Memphis #89 | Home | −8.7 | 79% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 9, time TBA | Queens University #160 | Home | −14.6 | 91% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 19, 10:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away | −1.0 | 54% |
| 10 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Ozarks non-D-I | Home | −43.2 | >99% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −28.4 | >99% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −10.2 | 82% |
| 13 | Wed Jan 6, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.7 | 19% |
| 14 | Sun Jan 10, 5:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +8.2 | 23% |
| 15 | Wed Jan 13, 8:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Away · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 19, 9:30 PM ET | TCU #42 | Away · conference | +2.3 | 42% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Gainbridge Fieldhouse | +7.4 | 25% |
| 19 | Wed Jan 27, 8:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −8.7 | 78% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 10:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Away · conference | −5.0 | 67% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 8:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | +5.0 | 33% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 5:30 PM ET | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Home · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, time TBA | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.6 | 25% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, time TBA | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −3.6 | 63% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 | Home · conference | +5.9 | 30% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.4 | 17% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 10:30 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −1.3 | 55% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 1:30 PM ET | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | +3.4 | 38% |
Spread is from Baylor's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Decker Jr. | SG | 6-0 | JR | Transfer | · | 16.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 33.6 | 23.9 | 11.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Isaac Celiscar | SF | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | · | 13.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 31.1 | 23.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| Kayden Mingo | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | #34 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 32.0 | 22.5 | 10.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| Evan Chatman | PF | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | · | 8.8 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 28.9 | 21.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 0.8 |
| Isaac Williams IV | PG | 6-1 | JR | Returning | #249 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 25.0 | 19.4 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Dylan Mingo | PG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #10 | · | · | · | · | 15.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Elijah Williams | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #39 | · | · | · | · | 14.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| James Goodis | PG | 6-0 | SR | Walk-on | · | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Drew Perry | PG | 5-10 | SO | Walk-on | · | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Caden Powell | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | #268 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 24.4 | · | · | · | · |
| Juslin Bodo Bodo | C | 6-11 | SR | Returning | #177 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 0.2 | 21.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Andre Iguodala II | SF | 6-7 | SO | Returning | #192 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Maikcol Perez | PF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Mayo Soyoye | C | 6-10 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tegra Makabu | C | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.