Southeastern Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 22.8
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, time TBA | Arkansas-Pine Bluff #320 | Home | −29.0 | >99% |
| 2 | Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Neutral at Capital One Arena Capital Showcase | −1.2 | 54% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, time TBA | Robert Morris #130 | Home | −17.3 | 94% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | Central Arkansas #164 | Home | −20.0 | 97% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 7:30 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Neutral at Madison Square Garden Bad Boy Mowers Series | −4.4 | 66% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, time TBA | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −34.3 | >99% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 4:30 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | +1.2 | 46% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 7:30 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −1.5 | 55% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, time TBA | Oral Roberts #318 | Home | −28.0 | 99% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 9:00 PM ET | Oakland #147 | Home | −19.5 | 96% |
| 11 | Sun Dec 13, time TBA | UT Arlington #196 | Home | −21.0 | 97% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 19, 6:30 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Mortgage Matchup Center Hall of Fame Series - Phoenix | +3.5 | 38% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 22, time TBA | Central Michigan #290 | Home | −25.7 | 99% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | UT Rio Grande Valley #135 | Home | −18.1 | 95% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 4:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Home · conference | −8.3 | 77% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Away · conference | −10.4 | 83% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Home · conference | −3.7 | 63% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Away · conference | −2.3 | 58% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.9 | 36% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Home · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 6:00 PM ET | Texas #20 | Away · conference | +1.2 | 46% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 9:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Home · conference | −9.2 | 80% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 8:30 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Home · conference | −13.8 | 90% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Vanderbilt #18 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Home · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 8:00 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Away · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Home · conference | −6.1 | 71% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, time TBA | Kentucky #26 | Away · conference | +0.6 | 48% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 7:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Away · conference | −4.1 | 64% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 3:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +1.9 | 43% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 9:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Away · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 12:00 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Home · conference | −5.6 | 70% |
Spread is from Arkansas's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | SG | 6-1 | JR | Transfer | #245 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 25.7 | 21.4 | 14.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Billy Richmond III | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #26 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 27.6 | 20.7 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Jordan Smith Jr. | PG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | #3 | · | · | · | · | 19.1 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Cooper Bowser | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 29.6 | 18.5 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| Abdou Toure | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #14 | · | · | · | · | 15.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| JJ Andrews | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #20 | · | · | · | · | 15.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Davion Thompson | PG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | #44 | · | · | · | · | 14.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Caleb Ourigou | C | 6-11 | FR | Recruit | #85 | · | · | · | · | 12.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Miikka Muurinen | PF | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #19 | · | · | · | · | 12.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Maper Maker | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #107 | · | · | · | · | 10.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Isaiah Sealy | SF | 6-7 | SO | Returning | #80 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Ayden Kelley | PG | 5-10 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Amere Brown | PG | 5-9 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Ilia Frolov | C | 7-0 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Paulo Semedo | C | 7-1 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.