Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 23.0
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 10:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas | −8.2 | 77% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, 10:30 PM ET | Cal Poly #252 | Home | −29.2 | >99% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Northern Arizona #323 | Home | −30.1 | >99% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Away | −5.2 | 68% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, 9:00 PM ET | UConn #13 | Home | −4.4 | 66% |
| 6 | Mon Nov 23, 11:30 PM ET | Colorado State #85 | Neutral at Lahaina Civic Center Southwest Maui Invitational | −13.4 | 89% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | New Orleans #207 | Home | −25.7 | 99% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Away Hall of Fame Series - New York City | −1.3 | 55% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 2:30 PM ET | Tennessee Tech #296 | Home | −28.9 | >99% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 6:30 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Neutral at Mortgage Matchup Center Hall of Fame Series - Phoenix | −3.5 | 62% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, 9:00 PM ET | Northern Illinois #317 | Home | −30.8 | >99% |
| 12 | Mon Dec 28, 9:00 PM ET | Incarnate Word #223 | Home | −25.3 | 99% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +2.0 | 43% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −11.7 | 86% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −14.7 | 91% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 11:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | −7.8 | 76% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | −14.1 | 90% |
| 18 | Fri Jan 22, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +1.8 | 44% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 26, 10:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −17.4 | 94% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 8:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | −7.5 | 75% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | −2.7 | 60% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +0.5 | 48% |
| 23 | Mon Feb 8, 9:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | −10.1 | 82% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 8:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −9.8 | 81% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | −9.3 | 80% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, time TBA | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | −4.7 | 67% |
| 27 | Mon Feb 22, 9:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | −3.4 | 62% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | −10.4 | 83% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, 9:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −17.2 | 94% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.5 | 34% |
Spread is from Arizona's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Godfrey | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | #169 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 25.2 | 26.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 |
| Motiejus Krivas | C | 7-2 | SR | Returning | · | 10.4 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 25.4 | 23.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 1.2 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov | SF | 6-7 | SO | Returning | · | 10.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 28.4 | 23.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Caleb Holt | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #2 | · | · | · | · | 20.9 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Derek Dixon | PG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | #43 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 22.3 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Cameron Holmes | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #40 | · | · | · | · | 15.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Evan Otten | C | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | · | 4.7 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 0.4 |
| JJ Mandaquit | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | #49 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 19.6 | 14.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Ugnius Jarusevicius | PF | 6-11 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Addison Arnold | PG | 6-3 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Jackson Cook | PG | 6-3 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Bryce James | SG | 6-5 | SO | Returning | #209 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Endurance Aiyamenkhue | C | 6-11 | FR | International | #321 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Joaquin Ridgon | SG | 6-3 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Mabil Mawut | PF | 6-11 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Maksim Brnovic | SF | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.