Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 17.2
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | East Tennessee State #156 | Home | −10.7 | 84% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Northern Colorado #197 | Home | −12.9 | 88% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Hofstra #119 | Home | −8.0 | 77% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | UL Monroe #346 | Home | −22.8 | 98% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, time TBA | Oakland #147 | Home | −10.6 | 83% |
| 6 | Wed Nov 25, 2:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | +1.3 | 45% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 2:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −4.1 | 65% |
| 8 | Mon Nov 30, time TBA | Montana #220 | Home | −14.1 | 90% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Neutral at BOK Center | +4.8 | 33% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 8:00 PM ET | Mercer #183 | Home | −12.4 | 87% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 14, time TBA | Oregon State #117 | Away | −3.7 | 63% |
| 12 | Sun Dec 20, time TBA | San Diego #179 | Home | −12.1 | 86% |
| 13 | Wed Dec 23, time TBA | Idaho #202 | Home | −13.2 | 88% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Southern Illinois #146 | Home | −10.4 | 83% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 10:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | +4.2 | 35% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 8:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Away · conference | +5.7 | 30% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, time TBA | UCF #47 | Home · conference | +0.2 | 49% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 10:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +13.2 | 12% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +14.1 | 10% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 8:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −6.8 | 73% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +11.5 | 15% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 8:30 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | +3.5 | 37% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 7:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | +9.0 | 21% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 9:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.1 | 16% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 8:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −2.4 | 58% |
| 28 | Fri Feb 19, 10:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 | Home · conference | +9.4 | 20% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 11:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −5.8 | 70% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 3:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −1.1 | 54% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 10:30 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | +3.1 | 39% |
Spread is from Arizona State's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Foxwell | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 15.6 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 35.6 | 26.1 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Paulius Murauskas | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 18.4 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 32.2 | 26.1 | 14.7 | 6.2 | 1.7 |
| Ben Defty | C | 7-0 | JR | Transfer | · | 15.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 29.5 | 22.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.3 |
| Dillan Shaw | SF | 6-7 | SO | Transfer | #118 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 27.5 | 21.9 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| Emmanuel Innocenti | SF | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| Jonathan Griman | PF | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 6.1 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 23.2 | 18.3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Bryce Ford | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | · | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 22.4 | 15.8 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| JRob Croy | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #139 | · | · | · | · | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Nate Garcia | C | 7-0 | SO | Transfer | · | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Ajak Nyuon | PF | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Filip Malesevic | C | 7-3 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jokubas Rudaitis | SG | 6-5 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Marcus Vaughns | SF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | #125 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Vijay Wallace | SG | 6-6 | RS JR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.