Southeastern Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 19.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, time TBA | Sam Houston #138 | Home | −18.2 | 95% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Arkansas State #155 | Home | −19.5 | 96% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, time TBA | Oakland #147 | Home | −18.6 | 95% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home | −8.1 | 77% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Kennesaw State #174 | Home | −20.6 | 97% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, 10:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | −3.8 | 64% |
| 7 | Wed Dec 2, 9:15 PM ET | Miami #24 | Away ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +2.0 | 43% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 8, 6:30 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Madison Square Garden Jimmy V Classic | +7.2 | 26% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 3:30 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Neutral at Legacy Arena at BJCC C.M. Newton Classic | +1.3 | 45% |
| 10 | Wed Dec 16, 7:00 PM ET | South Florida #67 | Away | −5.2 | 68% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Neutral at Casey's Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −1.5 | 55% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, 10:00 PM ET | Samford #215 | Home | −21.6 | 98% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Away · conference | −8.3 | 78% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Home · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.7 | 37% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Home · conference | −8.3 | 78% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 6:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Away · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 8:30 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Home · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 26, 9:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Away · conference | −2.8 | 60% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Auburn #36 | Home · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 2:00 PM ET | Kentucky #26 | Away · conference | +2.0 | 43% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Texas #20 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +2.5 | 41% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 8:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Home · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Home · conference | −12.8 | 88% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 2:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +5.3 | 32% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Away · conference | −1.0 | 54% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 8:30 PM ET | Vanderbilt #18 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, 7:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Home · conference | −5.8 | 70% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 6:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Away · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
Spread is from Alabama's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Fielder | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #115 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 23.7 | 19.7 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
| Amari Allen | SF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #74 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 28.2 | 18.6 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| Aden Holloway | PG | 6-1 | SR | Returning | #18 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 28.4 | 18.5 | 11.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming | PF | 6-10 | SO | Transfer | #94 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 20.2 | 14.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Jaxon Richardson | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #26 | · | · | · | · | 14.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Brandon Garrison | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #44 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 16.3 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| London Jemison | PF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #32 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Anderson Diaz | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #56 | · | · | · | · | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Qayden Samuels | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #32 | · | · | · | · | 12.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| Tarris Bouie | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #51 | · | · | · | · | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Keitenn Bristow | PF | 6-10 | JR | Returning | #226 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Jack Fagan | PG | 5-10 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Preston Murphy Jr. | PG | 6-1 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Collins Onyejiaka | C | 6-11 | SO | Returning | #158 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Cole Cloer | SF | 6-7 | RS FR | Transfer | #59 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.