College Football · ATS Tracker
UCLA Bruins leads the Power 4 at +15.4 points a game against the spread; Stanford Cardinal trails at -10.6. Every FBS team's cover margin, and why the market has probably caught up already.
Which college football teams are beating the spread, and which ones keep letting bettors down? This tracker ranks every FBS team by its average margin against the spread (ATS) through Week 7: how many points a game it has finished ahead of, or behind, the closing line. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 is +3. A 7-point underdog that loses by 3 is +4. Positive means the market has been underrating the team so far; negative means overrating it.
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA Bruins | Big Ten | +15.4 | 6-0 | vs Michigan State Spartans (-13.5) |
| 2 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | ACC | +14.2 | 5-2 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 3 | Northwestern Wildcats | Big Ten | +10.5 | 4-2 | vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-16.5) |
| 4 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Big Ten | +7.7 | 6-1 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 5 | Kentucky Wildcats | SEC | +7.1 | 6-1 | vs Vanderbilt Commodores (-11.5) |
| 6 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Big Ten | +6.3 | 4-2 | @ Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5.5) |
| 7 | Utah Utes | Big 12 | +5.8 | 5-1 | vs Houston Cougars |
| 8 | Alabama Crimson Tide | SEC | +5.8 | 4-3 | vs Texas A&M Aggies (-15.5) |
| 9 | Baylor Bears | Big 12 | +5.3 | 4-2 | @ Kansas Jayhawks |
| 10 | UCF Knights | Big 12 | +5.2 | 4-2 | vs BYU Cougars (+7.5) |
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford Cardinal | ACC | -10.6 | 2-5 | vs NC State Wolfpack (+7.5) |
| 2 | Washington Huskies | Big Ten | -9.1 | 2-5 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 3 | Vanderbilt Commodores | SEC | -8.1 | 3-4 | @ Kentucky Wildcats (+11.5) |
| 4 | California Golden Bears | ACC | -7.6 | 2-5 | @ SMU Mustangs |
| 5 | Arizona State Sun Devils | Big 12 | -7.5 | 2-4 | vs Kansas State Wildcats |
| 6 | Clemson Tigers | ACC | -6.6 | 2-4 | vs Virginia Tech Hokies (+1.5) |
| 7 | Maryland Terrapins | Big Ten | -6.5 | 3-4 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 8 | Oklahoma Sooners | SEC | -6.1 | 2-4 | @ Mississippi State Bulldogs |
| 9 | Michigan Wolverines | Big Ten | -5.8 | 2-4 | vs Indiana Hoosiers (+8.5) |
| 10 | USC Trojans | Big Ten | -5.3 | 2-5 | @ Wisconsin Badgers (-2.5) |
Still perfect against the spread after four or more games: UCLA Bruins, BYU Cougars.
The biggest numbers are often outside the Power 4, where markets have less information to work with early. Oregon State Beavers leads all of FBS at +16.4.
Top five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon State Beavers | Pac-12 | +16.4 | 6-1 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 2 | New Mexico Lobos | Mountain West | +15.5 | 5-1 | vs North Dakota State Bison |
| 3 | James Madison Dukes | Sun Belt | +14.6 | 6-1 | @ App State Mountaineers (-10.5) |
| 4 | Georgia State Panthers | Sun Belt | +11.5 | 5-1 | @ Arkansas State Red Wolves |
| 5 | UConn Huskies | Independent | +10.3 | 4-2 | vs Massachusetts Minutemen (-16.5) |
Bottom five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marshall Thundering Herd | Sun Belt | -12.8 | 1-5 | vs South Alabama Jaguars (+3.5) |
| 2 | Sacramento State Hornets | MAC | -10.9 | 2-5 | @ Ball State Cardinals |
| 3 | UL Monroe Warhawks | Sun Belt | -10.2 | 1-5 | @ Troy Trojans |
| 4 | Old Dominion Monarchs | Sun Belt | -10.1 | 1-6 | @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
| 5 | San Diego State Aztecs | Pac-12 | -9.2 | 2-5 | @ Colorado State Rams |
Before you bet the top of this list, here is the test we ran. For every season from 2022 to 2025, we took each team's ATS margin through Week 7 and compared it with the same team's ATS margin for the rest of that season. If early covers predicted later covers, the two would move together. They didn't: the average correlation was +0.02, which is indistinguishable from zero.
| Season | Teams | Correlation | Early top 10, rest of season | Covered | Early bottom 10, rest of season | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 128 | -0.16 | -2.7 | 41% | +1.8 | 54% |
| 2023 | 129 | +0.11 | +1.5 | 50% | -1.1 | 44% |
| 2024 | 134 | -0.04 | -0.2 | 45% | -2.8 | 42% |
| 2025 | 136 | +0.17 | +2.9 | 60% | -0.5 | 48% |
The reason is simple. Sportsbooks see the same scores you do and move the next line to match. A team that has beaten the number by two touchdowns a game gets priced like it. So this list tells you who has surprised the market, and it is a good place to start digging. It is not a betting system on its own: the useful question is whether the team has actually changed (a new quarterback, a healthier roster, a coordinator who fits), or whether it has just been lucky and the line has already moved past it.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers as published through ESPN's odds feed, and final scores come from ESPN. Regular-season games only, Weeks 0 through 7, and a team needs 3 or more games with a line to be ranked. A push counts as zero and shows as the third number in the record. "Next game" is the team's DraftKings line for the coming week as of publishing; lines move, so check the book before you act on one.
For entertainment and information. Nothing here is a guarantee of any result. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose; help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers via ESPN's odds feed; scores are ESPN's. The carry-forward test is rerun from 2022-2025 closing lines every time this page is built.
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