College Football · ATS Tracker

College Football ATS Tracker: Week 5

UCLA Bruins leads the Power 4 at +18.0 points a game against the spread; Washington Huskies trails at -11.7. Every FBS team's cover margin, and why the market has probably caught up already.

390 FBS games with a closing line, Weeks 0-5 · DraftKings closing spreads · 138 teams with 3+ games

Which college football teams are beating the spread, and which ones keep letting bettors down? This tracker ranks every FBS team by its average margin against the spread (ATS) through Week 5: how many points a game it has finished ahead of, or behind, the closing line. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 is +3. A 7-point underdog that loses by 3 is +4. Positive means the market has been underrating the team so far; negative means overrating it.

Most underrated in the Power 4 through Week 5

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1UCLA BruinsBig Ten+18.04-0@ Oregon Ducks (+11.5)
2Northwestern WildcatsBig Ten+17.84-0vs Ball State Cardinals (-34.5)
3Alabama Crimson TideSEC+13.94-1vs Georgia Bulldogs (+2.5)
4Utah UtesBig 12+11.54-0vs Kansas Jayhawks
5Duke Blue DevilsACC+11.14-0@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
6Wake Forest Demon DeaconsACC+11.13-2@ NC State Wolfpack (-2.5)
7Baylor BearsBig 12+9.34-1Bye, or no line yet
8Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten+8.84-1vs Indiana Hoosiers (+9.5)
9Miami HurricanesACC+7.84-1Bye, or no line yet
10Georgia BulldogsSEC+7.74-1@ Alabama Crimson Tide (-2.5)

Most overrated in the Power 4 through Week 5

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1Washington HuskiesBig Ten-11.71-4vs Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5)
2Stanford CardinalACC-11.42-3@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+36.5)
3California Golden BearsACC-9.21-4vs Virginia Tech Hokies
4Colorado BuffaloesBig 12-8.11-4Bye, or no line yet
5Oklahoma SoonersSEC-8.01-3vs Texas Longhorns (+9.5)
6Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsACC-7.90-4vs Duke Blue Devils
7Arkansas RazorbacksSEC-7.81-4vs Tennessee Volunteers
8Arizona State Sun DevilsBig 12-7.82-2vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
9USC TrojansBig Ten-7.21-5@ Penn State Nittany Lions (-2.5)
10Maryland TerrapinsBig Ten-7.12-3@ Ohio State Buckeyes (+35.5)

Still perfect against the spread after four or more games: UCLA Bruins, Northwestern Wildcats, Utah Utes, Duke Blue Devils, BYU Cougars. Yet to cover once: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

Group of 5 corner

The biggest numbers are often outside the Power 4, where markets have less information to work with early. New Mexico Lobos leads all of FBS at +19.3.

Top five

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1New Mexico LobosMountain West+19.35-0Bye, or no line yet
2Georgia State PanthersSun Belt+17.75-0Bye, or no line yet
3James Madison DukesSun Belt+17.45-0@ Georgia Southern Eagles (-9.5)
4Oregon State BeaversPac-12+15.55-0vs San Diego State Aztecs
5Sam Houston BearkatsC-USA+14.13-1@ Liberty Flames (+13.5)

Bottom five

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1Old Dominion MonarchsSun Belt-16.20-5@ App State Mountaineers (+6.5)
2Marshall Thundering HerdSun Belt-13.21-4vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
3Western Kentucky HilltoppersC-USA-10.72-3vs Missouri State Bears (-1.5)
4UL Monroe WarhawksSun Belt-10.11-4Bye, or no line yet
5Charlotte 49ersAmerican-9.72-3@ North Texas Mean Green

Does a hot ATS start carry forward? Not really

Before you bet the top of this list, here is the test we ran. For every season from 2022 to 2025, we took each team's ATS margin through Week 5 and compared it with the same team's ATS margin for the rest of that season. If early covers predicted later covers, the two would move together. They didn't: the average correlation was -0.01, which is indistinguishable from zero.

SeasonTeamsCorrelationEarly top 10, rest of seasonCoveredEarly bottom 10, rest of seasonCovered
2022131-0.17-1.248%+1.854%
2023133-0.05-1.345%-0.551%
2024134+0.04+0.649%-0.549%
2025136+0.15+0.653%-2.044%

The reason is simple. Sportsbooks see the same scores you do and move the next line to match. A team that has beaten the number by two touchdowns a game gets priced like it. So this list tells you who has surprised the market, and it is a good place to start digging. It is not a betting system on its own: the useful question is whether the team has actually changed (a new quarterback, a healthier roster, a coordinator who fits), or whether it has just been lucky and the line has already moved past it.

How we calculate it

Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers as published through ESPN's odds feed, and final scores come from ESPN. Regular-season games only, Weeks 0 through 5, and a team needs 3 or more games with a line to be ranked. A push counts as zero and shows as the third number in the record. "Next game" is the team's DraftKings line for the coming week as of publishing; lines move, so check the book before you act on one.

For entertainment and information. Nothing here is a guarantee of any result. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose; help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.

Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers via ESPN's odds feed; scores are ESPN's. The carry-forward test is rerun from 2022-2025 closing lines every time this page is built.

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