College Football · ATS Tracker
UCLA Bruins leads the Power 4 at +18.0 points a game against the spread; Washington Huskies trails at -15.5. Every FBS team's cover margin, and why the market has probably caught up already.
Which college football teams are beating the spread, and which ones keep letting bettors down? This tracker ranks every FBS team by its average margin against the spread (ATS) through Week 4: how many points a game it has finished ahead of, or behind, the closing line. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 is +3. A 7-point underdog that loses by 3 is +4. Positive means the market has been underrating the team so far; negative means overrating it.
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA Bruins | Big Ten | +18.0 | 4-0 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 2 | Northwestern Wildcats | Big Ten | +15.7 | 3-0 | vs Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) |
| 3 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | SEC | +14.4 | 4-0 | vs Alabama Crimson Tide (+6) |
| 4 | Utah Utes | Big 12 | +11.5 | 4-0 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 5 | Duke Blue Devils | ACC | +11.1 | 4-0 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 6 | Alabama Crimson Tide | SEC | +10.5 | 3-1 | @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6) |
| 7 | Georgia Bulldogs | SEC | +10.0 | 4-0 | vs Vanderbilt Commodores (-24.5) |
| 8 | Florida Gators | SEC | +9.6 | 3-1 | @ Missouri Tigers (-4.5) |
| 9 | LSU Tigers | SEC | +9.2 | 2-2 | vs McNeese Cowboys |
| 10 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Big Ten | +8.6 | 3-1 | vs Maryland Terrapins (-14.5) |
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Huskies | Big Ten | -15.5 | 0-4 | @ USC Trojans (+10) |
| 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | Big 12 | -10.5 | 1-3 | @ Colorado Buffaloes (-13.5) |
| 3 | California Golden Bears | ACC | -9.9 | 1-3 | @ UNLV Rebels (+2.5) |
| 4 | Boston College Eagles | ACC | -8.0 | 2-2 | @ SMU Mustangs (+20.5) |
| 5 | Oklahoma Sooners | SEC | -8.0 | 1-3 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 6 | Colorado Buffaloes | Big 12 | -8.0 | 1-3 | vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (+13.5) |
| 7 | USC Trojans | Big Ten | -8.0 | 1-4 | vs Washington Huskies (-10) |
| 8 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | ACC | -7.9 | 0-4 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 9 | Florida State Seminoles | ACC | -6.9 | 1-2-1 | vs Virginia Cavaliers (+3) |
| 10 | Indiana Hoosiers | Big Ten | -6.8 | 0-4 | @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-23.5) |
Still perfect against the spread after four or more games: UCLA Bruins, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Utah Utes, Duke Blue Devils, Georgia Bulldogs. Yet to cover once: Arizona Wildcats, Indiana Hoosiers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Washington Huskies.
The biggest numbers are often outside the Power 4, where markets have less information to work with early. James Madison Dukes leads all of FBS at +18.4.
Top five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison Dukes | Sun Belt | +18.4 | 4-0 | vs Marshall Thundering Herd (-17.5) |
| 2 | New Mexico Lobos | Mountain West | +16.5 | 4-0 | vs UTEP Miners (-22.5) |
| 3 | Massachusetts Minutemen | MAC | +15.9 | 3-1 | vs Eastern Michigan Eagles (-5.5) |
| 4 | Georgia State Panthers | Sun Belt | +14.5 | 4-0 | vs Old Dominion Monarchs (+1.5) |
| 5 | Sam Houston Bearkats | C-USA | +14.1 | 3-1 | Bye, or no line yet |
Bottom five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marshall Thundering Herd | Sun Belt | -13.1 | 1-3 | @ James Madison Dukes (+17.5) |
| 2 | Old Dominion Monarchs | Sun Belt | -12.6 | 0-4 | @ Georgia State Panthers (-1.5) |
| 3 | San Diego State Aztecs | Pac-12 | -12.1 | 0-4 | vs Texas State Bobcats (+3.5) |
| 4 | UL Monroe Warhawks | Sun Belt | -11.5 | 1-3 | @ South Alabama Jaguars (+14) |
| 5 | Buffalo Bulls | MAC | -11.5 | 0-4 | vs Western Michigan Broncos (+14) |
Before you bet the top of this list, here is the test we ran. For every season from 2022 to 2025, we took each team's ATS margin through Week 4 and compared it with the same team's ATS margin for the rest of that season. If early covers predicted later covers, the two would move together. They didn't: the average correlation was -0.04, which is indistinguishable from zero.
| Season | Teams | Correlation | Early top 10, rest of season | Covered | Early bottom 10, rest of season | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 131 | -0.17 | -2.9 | 41% | +2.3 | 60% |
| 2023 | 133 | -0.08 | -0.2 | 46% | -0.6 | 49% |
| 2024 | 131 | +0.02 | +1.4 | 48% | -0.8 | 45% |
| 2025 | 134 | +0.08 | +1.6 | 55% | +0.6 | 50% |
The reason is simple. Sportsbooks see the same scores you do and move the next line to match. A team that has beaten the number by two touchdowns a game gets priced like it. So this list tells you who has surprised the market, and it is a good place to start digging. It is not a betting system on its own: the useful question is whether the team has actually changed (a new quarterback, a healthier roster, a coordinator who fits), or whether it has just been lucky and the line has already moved past it.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers as published through ESPN's odds feed, and final scores come from ESPN. Regular-season games only, Weeks 0 through 4, and a team needs 3 or more games with a line to be ranked. A push counts as zero and shows as the third number in the record. "Next game" is the team's DraftKings line for the coming week as of publishing; lines move, so check the book before you act on one.
For entertainment and information. Nothing here is a guarantee of any result. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose; help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers via ESPN's odds feed; scores are ESPN's. The carry-forward test is rerun from 2022-2025 closing lines every time this page is built.
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